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These Annals of Internal Medicine results only contain recent articles.

School Mask Mandates and COVID-19: The Challenge of Using Difference-in-Differences Analysis of Observational Data to Estimate the Effectiveness of a Public Health Intervention

Background: There are considerable challenges when using difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis of ecological data to estimate the effectiveness of public health interventions in rapidly changing situations. Objective: To discuss the shortcomings of DiD methodology for the estimation of the effects of public health interventions using ecological data. Design: As an example, the authors consider an analysis that used DiD methodology and reported a causal reduction in COVID-19 cases due to the maintenance of school mask mandates. They did alternate analyses using various control groups to assess the robustness of the prior analysis. Setting: School districts in the greater Boston area and Massachusetts during the 2021-to-2022 academic year. Participants: Students and school staff. Measurements: Changes in COVID-19 case rates in districts that did and did not lift mask mandates. Results: Important potential confounders rendered DiD methodology inappropriate for causal inference, including prior immunity, temporal variation in rates of infection, and changes in testing practices. The racial composition and income of intervention and control groups also differed substantially. Compared with maintaining the mask requirement, dropping the requirement was associated with anywhere from an increase of 5.64 cases (95% CI, 3.00 to 8.29 cases) per 1000 persons to a decrease of 2.74 cases (CI, 0.63 to 4.85 cases) per 1000 persons, depending on choice of control group and whether students or staff were examined. Limitation: Ecological data were used; detailed data on all potential confounders were unavailable. Conclusion: Alternate analyses yielded estimates consistent with a wide range of both negative and positive associations in COVID-19 case rates after removal of mask mandates. The findings highlight the challenges of using DiD analysis of ecological data to estimate the effectiveness of interventions in divergent intervention and control groups during rapidly changing circumstances. Primary Funding Source: None.

Association Between Autoimmune Diseases and Monoclonal Gammopathy of Undetermined Significance: An Analysis From a Population-Based Screening Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 177, No 6

Background: Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a precursor of multiple myeloma (MM) and related conditions. In previous registry-based, retrospective studies, autoimmune diseases have been associated with MGUS. However, these studies were not based on a screened population and are therefore prone to ascertainment bias. Objective: To examine whether MGUS is associated with autoimmune diseases. Design: A cross-sectional study within iStopMM (Iceland Screens, Treats, or Prevents MM), a prospective, population-based screening study of MGUS. Setting: Icelandic population of adults aged 40 years or older. Patients: 75 422 persons screened for MGUS. Measurements: Poisson regression for prevalence ratios (PRs) of MGUS among persons with or without an autoimmune disease, adjusted for age and sex. Results: A total of 10 818 participants had an autoimmune disorder, of whom 599 had MGUS (61 with a prior clinical diagnosis and 538 diagnosed at study screening or evaluation). A diagnosis of an autoimmune disease was not associated with MGUS (PR, 1.05 [95% CI, 0.97 to 1.15]). However, autoimmune disease diagnoses were associated with a prior clinical diagnosis of MGUS (PR, 2.11 [CI, 1.64 to 2.70]). Limitation: Registry data were used to gather information on autoimmune diseases, and the homogeneity of the Icelandic population may limit the generalizability of these results. Conclusion: The study did not find an association between autoimmune disease and MGUS in a systematically screened population. Previous studies not done in systematically screened populations have likely been subject to ascertainment bias. The findings indicate that recommendations to routinely screen patients with autoimmune disease for MGUS may not be warranted. Primary Funding Source: The International Myeloma Foundation and the European Research Council.

Computer-Aided Diagnosis for Leaving Colorectal Polyps In Situ: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 177, No 7

Background: Computer-aided diagnosis (CADx) allows prediction of polyp histology during colonoscopy, which may reduce unnecessary removal of nonneoplastic polyps. However, the potential benefits and harms of CADx are still unclear. Purpose: To quantify the benefit and harm of using CADx in colonoscopy for the optical diagnosis of small (≤5-mm) rectosigmoid polyps. Data Sources: Medline, Embase, and Scopus were searched for articles published before 22 December 2023. Study Selection: Histologically verified diagnostic accuracy studies that evaluated the real-time performance of physicians in predicting neoplastic change of small rectosigmoid polyps without or with CADx assistance during colonoscopy. Data Extraction: The clinical benefit and harm were estimated on the basis of accuracy values of the endoscopist before and after CADx assistance. The certainty of evidence was assessed using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) framework. The outcome measure for benefit was the proportion of polyps predicted to be nonneoplastic that would avoid removal with the use of CADx. The outcome measure for harm was the proportion of neoplastic polyps that would be not resected and left in situ due to an incorrect diagnosis with the use of CADx. Histology served as the reference standard for both outcomes. Data Synthesis: Ten studies, including 3620 patients with 4103 small rectosigmoid polyps, were analyzed. The studies that assessed the performance of CADx alone (9 studies; 3237 polyps) showed a sensitivity of 87.3% (95% CI, 79.2% to 92.5%) and specificity of 88.9% (CI, 81.7% to 93.5%) in predicting neoplastic change. In the studies that compared histology prediction performance before versus after CADx assistance (4 studies; 2503 polyps), there was no difference in the proportion of polyps predicted to be nonneoplastic that would avoid removal (55.4% vs. 58.4%; risk ratio [RR], 1.06 [CI, 0.96 to 1.17]; moderate-certainty evidence) or in the proportion of neoplastic polyps that would be erroneously left in situ (8.2% vs. 7.5%; RR, 0.95 [CI, 0.69 to 1.33]; moderate-certainty evidence). Limitation: The application of optical diagnosis was only simulated, potentially altering the decision-making process of the operator. Conclusion: Computer-aided diagnosis provided no incremental benefit or harm in the management of small rectosigmoid polyps during colonoscopy. Primary Funding Source: European Commission. (PROSPERO: CRD42023402197)

Trends in Psychological Distress and Outpatient Mental Health Care of Adults During the COVID-19 Era

Background: In addition to the physical disease burden of the COVID-19 pandemic, concern exists over its adverse mental health effects. Objective: To characterize trends in psychological distress and outpatient mental health care among U.S. adults from 2018 to 2021 and to describe patterns of in-person, telephone, and video outpatient mental health care. Design: Cross-sectional nationally representative survey of noninstitutionalized adults. Setting: United States. Participants: Adults included in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component, 2018 to 2021 (n = 86 658). Measurements: Psychological distress was measured with the Kessler-6 scale (range of 0 to 24, with higher scores indicating more severe distress), with a score of 13 or higher defined as serious psychological distress, 1 to 12 as less serious distress, and 0 as no distress. Outpatient mental health care use was measured via computer-assisted personal interviews. Results: Between 2018 and 2021, the rate of serious psychological distress among adults increased from 3.5% to 4.2%. Although the rate of outpatient mental health care increased from 11.2% to 12.4% overall, the rate decreased from 46.5% to 40.4% among adults with serious psychological distress. When age, sex, and distress were controlled for, a significant increase in outpatient mental health care was observed for young adults (aged 18 to 44 years) but not middle-aged (aged 45 to 64 years) and older (aged >65 years) adults and for employed adults but not unemployed adults. In 2021, 33.4% of mental health outpatients received at least 1 video visit, including a disproportionate percentage of young, college-educated, higher-income, employed, and urban adults. Limitation: Information about outpatient mental health service modality (in-person, video, telephone) was first fully available in the 2021 survey. Conclusion: These trends and patterns underscore the persistent challenges of connecting older adults, unemployed persons, and seriously distressed adults to outpatient mental health care and the difficulties faced by older, less educated, lower-income, unemployed, and rural patients in accessing outpatient mental health care via video. Primary Funding Source: None.

Association of Albuminuria With Chronic Kidney Disease Progression in Persons With Chronic Kidney Disease and Normoalbuminuria: A Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 177, No 4

Background: Albuminuria is a major risk factor for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, especially when categorized as moderate (30 to 300 mg/g) or severe (>300 mg/g). However, there are limited data on the prognostic value of albuminuria within the normoalbuminuric range (<30 mg/g) in persons with CKD. Objective: To estimate the increase in the cumulative incidence of CKD progression with greater baseline levels of albuminuria among persons with CKD who had normoalbuminuria (<30 mg/g). Design: Multicenter prospective cohort study. Setting: 7 U.S. clinical centers. Participants: 1629 participants meeting criteria from the CRIC (Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort) study with CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR], 20 to 70 mL/min/1.73 m2) and urine albumin–creatinine ratio (UACR) less than 30 mg/g. Measurements: Baseline spot urine albumin divided by spot urine creatinine to calculate UACR as the exposure variable. The 10-year adjusted cumulative incidences of CKD progression (composite of 50% eGFR decline or kidney failure [dialysis or kidney transplantation]) from confounder adjusted survival curves using the G-formula. Results: Over a median follow-up of 9.8 years, 182 of 1629 participants experienced CKD progression. The 10-year adjusted cumulative incidences of CKD progression were 8.7% (95% CI, 5.9% to 11.6%), 11.5% (CI, 8.8% to 14.3%), and 19.5% (CI, 15.4% to 23.5%) for UACR levels of 0 to less than 5 mg/g, 5 to less than 15 mg/g, and 15 mg/g or more, respectively. Comparing persons with UACR 15 mg/g or more to those with UACR 5 to less than 15 mg/g and 0 to less than 5 mg/g, the absolute risk differences were 7.9% (CI, 3.0% to 12.7%) and 10.7% (CI, 5.8% to 15.6%), respectively. The 10-year adjusted cumulative incidence increased linearly based on baseline UACR levels. Limitation: UACR was measured once. Conclusion: Persons with CKD and normoalbuminuria (<30 mg/g) had excess risk for CKD progression, which increased in a linear fashion with higher levels of albuminuria. Primary Funding Source: None.

Trends in U.S. Medical Cannabis Registrations, Authorizing Clinicians, and Reasons for Use From 2020 to 2022

Background: As medical cannabis availability increases, up-to-date trends in medical cannabis licensure can inform clinical policy and care. Objective: To describe current trends in medical cannabis licensure in the United States. Design: Ecological study with repeated measures. Setting: Publicly available state registry data from 2020 to 2022. Participants: People with medical cannabis licenses and clinicians authorizing cannabis licenses in the United States. Measurements: Total patient volume and prevalence per 10 000 persons in the total population, symptoms or conditions qualifying patients for licensure (that is, patient-reported qualifying conditions), and number of authorizing clinicians. Results: In 2022, of 39 jurisdictions allowing medical cannabis use, 34 reported patient numbers, 19 reported patient-reported qualifying conditions, and 29 reported authorizing clinician numbers. Enrolled patients increased 33.3% from 2020 (3 099 096) to 2022 (4 132 098), with a corresponding 23.0% increase in the population prevalence of patients (175.0 per 10 000 in 2020 to 215.2 per 10 000 in 2022). However, 13 of 15 jurisdictions with nonmedical adult-use laws had decreased enrollment from 2020 to 2022. The proportion of patient-reported qualifying conditions with substantial or conclusive evidence of therapeutic value decreased from 70.4% (2020) to 53.8% (2022). Chronic pain was the most common patient-reported qualifying condition in 2022 (48.4%), followed by anxiety (14.2%) and posttraumatic stress disorder (13.0%). In 2022, the United States had 29 500 authorizing clinicians (7.7 per 1000 patients), 53.5% of whom were physicians. The most common specialties reported were internal or family medicine (63.4%), physical medicine and rehabilitation (9.1%), and anesthesia or pain (7.9%). Limitation: Missing data (for example, from California), descriptive analysis, lack of information on individual use patterns, and changing evidence base. Conclusion: Enrollment in medical cannabis programs increased overall but generally decreased in jurisdictions with nonmedical adult-use laws. Use for conditions or symptoms without a strong evidence basis continues to increase. Given these trends, more research is needed to better understand the risks and benefits of medical cannabis. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.