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Risk-Targeted Lung Cancer Screening: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 168, No 3
Background: Targeting low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) for lung cancer screening to persons at highest risk for lung cancer mortality has been suggested to improve screening efficiency. Objective: To quantify the value of risk-targeted selection for lung cancer screening compared with National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) eligibility criteria. Design: Cost-effectiveness analysis using a multistate prediction model. Data Sources: NLST. Target Population: Current and former smokers eligible for lung cancer screening. Time Horizon: Lifetime. Perspective: Health care sector. Intervention: Risk-targeted versus NLST-based screening. Outcome Measures: Incremental 7-year mortality, life expectancy, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of screening with LDCT versus chest radiography at each decile of lung cancer mortality risk. Results of Base-Case Analysis: Participants at greater risk for lung cancer mortality were older and had more comorbid conditions and higher screening-related costs. The incremental lung cancer mortality benefits during the first 7 years ranged from 1.2 to 9.5 lung cancer deaths prevented per 10 000 person-years for the lowest to highest risk deciles, respectively (extreme decile ratio, 7.9). The gradient of benefits across risk groups, however, was attenuated in terms of life-years (extreme decile ratio, 3.6) and QALYs (extreme decile ratio, 2.4). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were similar across risk deciles ($75 000 per QALY in the lowest risk decile to $53 000 per QALY in the highest risk decile). Payers willing to pay $100 000 per QALY would pay for LDCT screening for all decile groups. Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Alternative assumptions did not substantially alter our findings. Limitation: Our model did not account for all correlated differences between lung cancer mortality risk and quality of life. Conclusions: Although risk targeting may improve screening efficiency in terms of early lung cancer mortality per person screened, the gains in efficiency are attenuated and modest in terms of life-years, QALYs, and cost-effectiveness. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health (U01NS086294).
Identifying Trends in Undiagnosed Diabetes in U.S. Adults by Using a Confirmatory Definition: A Cross-sectional Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 167, No 11
Background: A common belief is that one quarter to one third of all diabetes cases remain undiagnosed. However, such prevalence estimates may be overstated by epidemiologic studies that do not use confirmatory testing, as recommended by clinical diagnostic criteria. Objective: To provide national estimates of undiagnosed diabetes by using a confirmatory testing strategy, in line with clinical practice guidelines. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey results from 1988 to 1994 and 1999 to 2014. Participants: U.S. adults aged 20 years and older. Measurements: Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes was defined as elevated levels of fasting glucose (≥7.0 mmol/L [≥126 mg/dL]) and hemoglobin A1c (≥6.5%) in persons without diagnosed diabetes. Results: The prevalence of total (diagnosed plus confirmed undiagnosed) diabetes increased from 5.5% (9.7 million adults) in 1988 to 1994 to 10.8% (25.5 million adults) in 2011 to 2014. Confirmed undiagnosed diabetes increased during the past 2 decades (from 0.89% in 1988 to 1994 to 1.2% in 2011 to 2014) but has decreased over time as a proportion of total diabetes cases. In 1988 to 1994, the percentage of total diabetes cases that were undiagnosed was 16.3%; by 2011 to 2014, this estimate had decreased to 10.9%. Undiagnosed diabetes was more common in overweight or obese adults, older adults, racial/ethnic minorities (including Asian Americans), and persons lacking health insurance or access to health care. Limitation: Cross-sectional design. Conclusion: Establishing the burden of undiagnosed diabetes is critical to monitoring public health efforts related to screening and diagnosis. When a confirmatory definition is used, undiagnosed diabetes is a relatively small fraction of the total diabetes population; most U.S. adults with diabetes (about 90%) have received a diagnosis of the condition. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
Mid- and Long-Term Health Risks in Living Kidney Donors: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 168, No 4
Background: Long-term health risks for adults who donate kidneys are unclear. Purpose: To summarize evidence about mid- and long-term health risks associated with living kidney donation in adults. Data Sources: PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and PsycINFO without language restriction from April 1964 to July 2017. Study Selection: Observational studies with at least 1 year of follow-up that compared health outcomes in adult living kidney donors versus nondonor populations. Data Extraction: Two investigators independently extracted study data and assessed study quality. Data Synthesis: 52 studies, comprising 118 426 living kidney donors and 117 656 nondonors, were included. Average follow-up was 1 to 24 years. No evidence suggested higher risk for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, or adverse psychosocial health outcomes in living kidney donors than in nondonor populations. Donors had higher diastolic blood pressure, lower estimated glomerular filtration rates, and higher risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (relative risk [RR], 8.83 [95% CI, 1.02 to 20.93]) and preeclampsia in female donors (RR, 2.12 [CI, 1.06 to 4.27]). Despite the increased RR, donors had low absolute risk for ESRD (incidence rate, 0.5 event [CI, 0.1 to 4.9 events] per 1000 person-years) and preeclampsia (incidence rate, 5.9 events [CI, 2.9 to 8.9 events] per 100 pregnancies). Limitation: Generalizability was limited by selected control populations, few studies reported pregnancy-related outcomes, and few studies were from low- and middle-income countries. Conclusion: Although living kidney donation is associated with higher RRs for ESRD and preeclampsia, the absolute risk for these outcomes remains low. Compared with nondonor populations, living kidney donors have no increased risk for other major chronic diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, or for adverse psychosocial outcomes. Primary Funding Source: National Health Service Blood and Transplant and National Institute for Health Research. (PROSPERO: CRD42017072284)
Curing Hepatitis C Virus Infection: Best Practices From the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs
The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) is the nation's largest care provider for hepatitis C virus (HCV)–infected patients and is uniquely suited to inform national efforts to eliminate HCV. An extensive array of delivery of services, policy guidance, outreach efforts, and funding has broadened the reach and capacity of the VA to deliver direct-acting antiviral (DAA) HCV therapy, supported by an infrastructure to effectively implement change and informed by extensive population health data analysis. The VA has treated more than 92 000 HCV-infected veterans since all-oral DAAs became available in January 2014, with cure rates exceeding 90%; only 51 000 veterans in VA care are known to remain potentially eligible for treatment. Key actions advancing the VA's aggressive treatment of HCV infection that are germane to non-VA settings include expansion of treatment capacity through the use of nonphysician providers, video telehealth, and electronic technologies; expansion of integrated care to address psychiatric and substance use comorbidities; and electronic data tools for patient tracking and outreach. A critical component of effective implementation has been building infrastructure through the creation of regional multidisciplinary HCV Innovation Teams, whose system redesign efforts have produced innovative HCV practice models addressing gaps in care while providing more efficient and effective HCV management for the populations they serve. Financing for HCV treatment and infrastructure resources coupled with reduced drug prices has been paramount to the VA's success in curing HCV infection. The VA is poised to share and extend best practices to other health care organizations and providers delivering HCV care, contributing to a concerted effort to reduce the overall burden of HCV infection.
Readmissions After Revascularization Procedures for Peripheral Arterial Disease: A Nationwide Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 168, No 2
Background: Limited data suggest high rates of unplanned rehospitalization after endovascular and surgical revascularization for peripheral arterial disease. However, the overall burden of readmissions has not been comprehensively explored. Objective: To evaluate nationwide readmissions after peripheral arterial revascularization for peripheral arterial disease and to assess whether readmission risk varies among hospitals. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: 1085 U.S. acute care hospitals participating in the Nationwide Readmissions Database. Patients: 61 969 unweighted hospitalizations of patients with peripheral arterial disease who had peripheral arterial revascularization and were discharged alive between 1 January and 30 November 2014. Measurements: 30-day readmission rates, causes, and costs of unplanned rehospitalizations after peripheral arterial revascularization; 30-day risk-standardized readmission rates (RSRRs), calculated using hierarchical logistic regression, to assess for heterogeneity of readmission risk between hospitals. Results: Among 61 969 hospitalizations of patients with peripheral arterial disease who were discharged alive after peripheral arterial revascularization, the 30-day nonelective readmission rate was 17.6%. The most common cause of readmission was procedural complications (28.0%), followed by sepsis (8.3%) and complications due to diabetes mellitus (7.5%). Among rehospitalized patients, 21.0% underwent a subsequent peripheral arterial revascularization or lower extremity amputation, 4.6% died, and the median cost of a readmission was $11 013. Thirty-day RSRRs varied from 10.0% to 27.3% (interquartile range, 16.6% to 18.8%). Limitation: Inability to distinguish out-of-hospital deaths after discharge and potential misclassification bias due to use of billing codes to ascertain diagnoses and interventions. Conclusion: More than 1 in 6 patients with peripheral arterial disease who undergo peripheral arterial revascularization have unplanned readmission within 30 days, with high associated mortality risks and costs. Procedure- and patient-related factors were the primary reasons for readmission. Readmission rates varied moderately between institutions after hospital case mix was accounted for, suggesting that differences in hospital quality may only partially account for readmission. Primary Funding Source: Smith Center for Outcomes Research in Cardiology, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center.
Trends in Racial/Ethnic and Nativity Disparities in Cardiovascular Health Among Adults Without Prevalent Cardiovascular Disease in the United States, 1988 to 2014
Background: Trends in cardiovascular disparities are poorly understood, even as diversity increases in the United States. Objective: To examine U.S. trends in racial/ethnic and nativity disparities in cardiovascular health. Design: Repeated cross-sectional study. Setting: NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 1988 to 2014. Participants: Adults aged 25 years or older who did not report cardiovascular disease. Measurements: Racial/ethnic, nativity, and period differences in Life's Simple 7 (LS7) health factors and behaviors (blood pressure, cholesterol, hemoglobin A1c, body mass index, physical activity, diet, and smoking) and optimal composite scores for cardiovascular health (LS7 score ≥10). Results: Rates of optimal cardiovascular health remain below 40% among whites, 25% among Mexican Americans, and 15% among African Americans. Disparities in optimal cardiovascular health between whites and African Americans persisted but decreased over time. In 1988 to 1994, the percentage of African Americans with optimal LS7 scores was 22.8 percentage points (95% CI, 19.3 to 26.4 percentage points) lower than that of whites in persons aged 25 to 44 years and 8.0 percentage points (CI, 6.4 to 9.7 percentage points) lower in those aged 65 years or older. By 2011 to 2014, differences decreased to 10.6 percentage points (CI, 7.4 to 13.9 percentage points) and 3.8 percentage points (CI, 2.5 to 5.0 percentage points), respectively. Disparities in optimal LS7 scores between whites and Mexican Americans were smaller but also decreased. These decreases were due to reductions in optimal cardiovascular health among whites over all age groups and periods: Between 1988 to 1994 and 2011 to 2014, the percentage of whites with optimal cardiovascular health decreased 15.3 percentage points (CI, 11.1 to 19.4 percentage points) for those aged 25 to 44 years and 4.6 percentage points (CI, 2.7 to 6.5 percentage points) for those aged 65 years or older. Limitation: Only whites, African Americans, and Mexican Americans were studied. Conclusion: Cardiovascular health has declined in the United States, racial/ethnic and nativity disparities persist, and decreased disparities seem to be due to worsening cardiovascular health among whites rather than gains among African Americans and Mexican Americans. Multifaceted interventions are needed to address declining population health and persistent health disparities. Primary Funding Source: National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke and National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health.
Socioeconomic Differences in the Epidemiologic Transition From Heart Disease to Cancer as the Leading Cause of Death in the United States, 2003 to 2015: An Observational Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 169, No 12
This article has been corrected. The original version (PDF) is appended to this article as a Supplement. Background: Recent data suggest that the United States is in the midst of an epidemiologic transition in the leading cause of death. Objective: To examine county-level sociodemographic differences in the transition from heart disease to cancer as the leading cause of death in the United States. Design: Observational study. Setting: U.S. death records, 2003 to 2015. Participants: Decedents aged 25 years or older, classified by racial/ethnic group. Measurements: All-cause, heart disease, and cancer mortality stratified by quintiles of county median household income. Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and average annual percentage of change were calculated. Results: Heart disease was the leading cause of death in 79% of counties in 2003 and 59% in 2015. Cancer was the leading cause of death in 21% of counties in 2003 and 41% in 2015. The shift to cancer as the leading cause of death was greatest in the highest-income counties. Overall, heart disease mortality rates decreased by 28% (30% in high-income counties vs. 22% in low-income counties) from 2003 to 2015, and cancer mortality rates decreased by 16% (18% in high-income counties vs. 11% in low-income counties). In the lowest-income counties, heart disease remained the leading cause of death among all racial/ethnic groups, and improvements were smaller for both heart disease and cancer. Limitation: Use of county median household income as a proxy for socioeconomic status. Conclusion: Data show that heart disease is more likely to be the leading cause of death in low-income counties. Low-income counties have not experienced the same decrease in mortality rates as high-income counties, which suggests a later transition to cancer as the leading cause of death in low-income counties. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities.
Concentration of Potentially Preventable Spending Among High-Cost Medicare Subpopulations: An Observational Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 167, No 10
Background: Little is known about whether potentially preventable spending is concentrated among a subset of high-cost Medicare beneficiaries. Objective: To determine the proportion of total spending that is potentially preventable across distinct subpopulations of high-cost Medicare beneficiaries. Design: Beneficiaries in the highest 10% of total standardized individual spending were defined as “high-cost” patients, using a 20% sample of Medicare fee-for-service claims from 2012. The following 6 subpopulations were defined using a claims-based algorithm: nonelderly disabled, frail elderly, major complex chronic, minor complex chronic, simple chronic, and relatively healthy. Potentially preventable spending was calculated by summing costs for avoidable emergency department visits using the Billings algorithm plus inpatient and associated 30-day postacute costs for ambulatory care–sensitive conditions (ACSCs). The amount and proportion of potentially preventable spending were then compared across the high-cost subpopulations and by individual ACSCs. Setting: Medicare. Participants: 6 112 450 Medicare beneficiaries. Measurements: Proportion of spending deemed potentially preventable. Results: In 2012, 4.8% of Medicare spending was potentially preventable, of which 73.8% was incurred by high-cost patients. Despite making up only 4% of the Medicare population, high-cost frail elderly persons accounted for 43.9% of total potentially preventable spending ($6593 per person). High-cost nonelderly disabled persons accounted for 14.8% of potentially preventable spending ($3421 per person) and the major complex chronic group for 11.2% ($3327 per person). Frail elderly persons accounted for most spending related to admissions for urinary tract infections, dehydration, heart failure, and bacterial pneumonia. Limitation: Potential misclassification in the identification of preventable spending and lack of detailed clinical data in administrative claims. Conclusion: Potentially preventable spending varied across Medicare subpopulations, with the majority concentrated among frail elderly persons. Primary Funding Source: The Commonwealth Fund.
Colonoscopy and Colorectal Cancer Mortality in the Veterans Affairs Health Care System: A Case–Control Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 168, No 7
Background: Colonoscopy is widely used in the Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system for colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention, but its effect on CRC mortality is unknown. Objective: To determine whether colonoscopy is associated with decreased CRC mortality in veterans and whether its effect differs by anatomical location of CRC. Design: Case–control study. Setting: VA–Medicare administrative data. Participants: Case patients were veterans aged 52 years or older who were diagnosed with CRC between 2002 and 2008 and died of the disease by the end of 2010. Case patients were matched to 4 control patients without prior CRC on the basis of age, sex, and facility. Conditional logistic regression was performed to calculate odds ratios (ORs) for exposure to colonoscopy, with adjustment for race, Charlson Comorbidity Index score, selected chronic conditions, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, and family history of CRC. Measurements: Exposure to colonoscopy was determined from 1997 to 6 months before CRC diagnosis in case patients and to a corresponding date in control patients. Subgroup analysis was performed for patients who had undergone screening colonoscopy. Results: A total of 4964 case patients and 19 856 control patients were identified. Case patients were significantly less likely to have undergone any colonoscopy (OR, 0.39 [95% CI, 0.35 to 0.43]). Colonoscopy was associated with reduced mortality for left-sided cancer (OR, 0.28 [CI, 0.24 to 0.32]) and right-sided cancer (OR, 0.54 [CI, 0.47 to 0.63]). The results were similar for patients who had undergone screening colonoscopy (overall OR, 0.30 [CI, 0.24 to 0.38]). Sensitivity analyses that varied the interval between CRC diagnosis and colonoscopy exposure did not affect the primary findings. Limitation: Unmeasured confounding. Conclusion: In this study using national VA–Medicare data, colonoscopy was associated with significant reductions in CRC mortality among veterans and was associated with greater benefit for left-sided cancer than right-sided cancer. Primary Funding Source: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.
Comparison of Five Major Guidelines for Statin Use in Primary Prevention in a Contemporary General Population
Background: Five major organizations recently published guidelines for using statins to prevent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD): in 2013, the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA); in 2014, the United Kingdom's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE); and in 2016, the Canadian Cardiovascular Society (CCS), the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), and the European Society of Cardiology/European Atherosclerosis Society (ESC/EAS). Objective: To compare the utility of these guidelines for primary prevention of ASCVD. Design: Observational study of actual ASCVD events during 10 years, followed by a modeling study to estimate the effectiveness of different guidelines. Setting: The Copenhagen General Population Study. Participants: 45 750 Danish persons aged 40 to 75 years who did not use statins and did not have ASCVD at baseline. Measurements: The number of participants eligible to use statins according to each guideline and the estimated number of ASCVD events that statins could have prevented. Results: The percentage of participants eligible for statins was 44% by the CCS guideline, 42% by ACC/AHA, 40% by NICE, 31% by USPSTF, and 15% by ESC/EAS. The estimated percentage of ASCVD events that could have been prevented by using statins for 10 years was 34% for CCS, 34% for ACC/AHA, 32% for NICE, 27% for USPSTF, and 13% for ESC/EAS. Limitation: This study was limited to primary prevention in white Europeans. Conclusion: Guidelines recommending that more persons use statins for primary prevention of ASCVD should prevent more events than guidelines recommending use by fewer persons. Primary Funding Source: Copenhagen University Hospital.