Impact of Population Growth and Aging on Estimates of Excess U.S. Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic, March to August 2020

Background: Excess death estimates quantify the full impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Widely reported U.S. excess death estimates have not accounted for recent population changes, especially increases in the population older than 65 years. Objective: To estimate excess deaths in the United States in 2020, after accounting for population changes. Design: Surveillance study. Setting: United States, March to August 2020. Participants: All decedents. Measurements: Age-specific excess deaths in the United States from 1 March to 31 August 2020 compared with 2015 to 2019 were estimated, after changes in population size and age were taken into account, by using Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provisional death data and U.S. Census Bureau population estimates. Cause-specific excess deaths were estimated by month and age. Results: From March through August 2020, 1 671 400 deaths were registered in the United States, including 173 300 COVID-19 deaths. An average of 1 370 000 deaths were reported over the same months during 2015 to 2019, for a crude excess of 301 400 deaths (128 100 non–COVID-19 deaths). However, the 2020 U.S. population includes 5.04 million more persons aged 65 years and older than the average population in 2015 to 2019 (a 10% increase). After population changes were taken into account, an estimated 217 900 excess deaths occurred from March through August 2020 (173 300 COVID-19 and 44 600 non–COVID-19 deaths). Most excess non–COVID-19 deaths occurred in April, July, and August, and 34 900 (78%) were in persons aged 25 to 64 years. Diabetes, Alzheimer disease, and heart disease caused the most non–COVID-19 excess deaths. Limitation: Provisional death data are underestimated because of reporting delays. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in an estimated 218 000 excess deaths in the United States between March and August 2020, and 80% of those deaths had COVID-19 as the underlying cause. Accounting for population changes substantially reduced the excess non–COVID-19 death estimates, providing important information for guiding future clinical and public health interventions. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute.

Appropriate Use of Short-Course Antibiotics in Common Infections: Best Practice Advice From the American College of Physicians

Description: Antimicrobial overuse is a major health care issue that contributes to antibiotic resistance. Such overuse includes unnecessarily long durations of antibiotic therapy in patients with common bacterial infections, such as acute bronchitis with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation, community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), urinary tract infections (UTIs), and cellulitis. This article describes best practices for prescribing appropriate and short-duration antibiotic therapy for patients presenting with these infections. Methods: The authors conducted a narrative literature review of published clinical guidelines, systematic reviews, and individual studies that addressed bronchitis with COPD exacerbations, CAP, UTIs, and cellulitis. This article is based on the best available evidence but was not a formal systematic review. Guidance was prioritized to the highest available level of synthesized evidence. Best Practice Advice 1: Clinicians should limit antibiotic treatment duration to 5 days when managing patients with COPD exacerbations and acute uncomplicated bronchitis who have clinical signs of a bacterial infection (presence of increased sputum purulence in addition to increased dyspnea, and/or increased sputum volume). Best Practice Advice 2: Clinicians should prescribe antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia for a minimum of 5 days. Extension of therapy after 5 days of antibiotics should be guided by validated measures of clinical stability, which include resolution of vital sign abnormalities, ability to eat, and normal mentation. Best Practice Advice 3: In women with uncomplicated bacterial cystitis, clinicians should prescribe short-course antibiotics with either nitrofurantoin for 5 days, trimethoprim–sulfamethoxazole (TMP–SMZ) for 3 days, or fosfomycin as a single dose. In men and women with uncomplicated pyelonephritis, clinicians should prescribe short-course therapy either with fluoroquinolones (5 to 7 days) or TMP–SMZ (14 days) based on antibiotic susceptibility. Best Practice Advice 4: In patients with nonpurulent cellulitis, clinicians should use a 5- to 6-day course of antibiotics active against streptococci, particularly for patients able to self-monitor and who have close follow-up with primary care.

Retail Alcohol and Tobacco Sales During COVID-19

A Comprehensive Policy Framework to Understand and Address Disparities and Discrimination in Health and Health Care: A Policy Paper From the American College of Physicians

Racial and ethnic minority populations in the United States experience disparities in their health and health care that arise from a combination of interacting factors, including racism and discrimination, social drivers of health, health care access and quality, individual behavior, and biology. To ameliorate these disparities, the American College of Physicians (ACP) proposes a comprehensive policy framework that recognizes and confronts the many elements of U.S. society, some of which are intertwined and compounding, that contribute to poorer health outcomes. In addition to this framework, which includes high-level principles and discusses how disparities are interconnected, ACP offers specific policy recommendations on disparities and discrimination in education and the workforce, those affecting specific populations, and those in criminal justice practices and policies in its 3 companion policy papers. ACP believes that a cross-cutting approach that identifies and offers solutions to the various aspects of society contributing to poor health is essential to achieving its goal of good health care for all, poor health care for none.

Effects of Tai Chi or Conventional Exercise on Central Obesity in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: A Three-Group Randomized Controlled Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 8

Background: Central obesity is a major manifestation of metabolic syndrome, which is a common health problem in middle-aged and older adults. Objective: To examine the therapeutic efficacy of tai chi for management of central obesity. Design: Randomized, controlled, assessor-blinded trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03107741) Setting: A single research site in Hong Kong between 27 February 2016 and 28 February 2019. Participants: Adults aged 50 years or older with central obesity. Intervention: 543 participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1:1 ratio to a control group with no exercise intervention (n = 181), conventional exercise consisting of aerobic exercise and strength training (EX group) (n = 181), and a tai chi group (TC group) (n = 181). Interventions lasted 12 weeks. Measurements: Outcomes were assessed at baseline, week 12, and week 38. The primary outcome was waist circumference (WC). Secondary outcomes were body weight; body mass index; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride, and fasting plasma glucose levels; blood pressure; and incidence of remission of central obesity. Results: The adjusted mean difference in WC from baseline to week 12 in the control group was 0.8 cm (95% CI, −4.1 to 5.7 cm). Both intervention groups showed reductions in WC relative to control (adjusted mean differences: TC group vs. control, −1.8 cm [CI, −2.3 to −1.4 cm]; P < 0.001; EX group vs. control: −1.3 cm [CI, −1.8 to −0.9 cm]; P < 0.001); both intervention groups also showed reductions in body weight (P < 0.05) and attenuation of the decrease in HDL-C level relative to the control group. The favorable changes in WC and body weight were maintained in both the TC and EX groups, whereas the beneficial effect on HDL-C was only maintained in the TC group at week 38. Limitations: High attrition and no dietary intervention. Conclusion: Tai chi is an effective approach to reduce WC in adults with central obesity aged 50 years or older. Primary Funding Source: Health and Medical Research Fund.

Racial Disparities in COVID-19 Testing and Outcomes: Retrospective Cohort Study in an Integrated Health System: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 6

Background: Racial disparities exist in outcomes after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Objective: To evaluate the contribution of race/ethnicity in SARS-CoV-2 testing, infection, and outcomes. Design: Retrospective cohort study (1 February 2020 to 31 May 2020). Setting: Integrated health care delivery system in Northern California. Participants: Adult health plan members. Measurements: Age, sex, neighborhood deprivation index, comorbid conditions, acute physiology indices, and race/ethnicity; SARS-CoV-2 testing and incidence of positive test results; and hospitalization, illness severity, and mortality. Results: Among 3 481 716 eligible members, 42.0% were White, 6.4% African American, 19.9% Hispanic, and 18.6% Asian; 13.0% were of other or unknown race. Of eligible members, 91 212 (2.6%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection and 3686 had positive results (overall incidence, 105.9 per 100 000 persons; by racial group, White, 55.1; African American, 123.1; Hispanic, 219.6; Asian, 111.7; other/unknown, 79.3). African American persons had the highest unadjusted testing and mortality rates, White persons had the lowest testing rates, and those with other or unknown race had the lowest mortality rates. Compared with White persons, adjusted testing rates among non-White persons were marginally higher, but infection rates were significantly higher; adjusted odds ratios [aORs] for African American persons, Hispanic persons, Asian persons, and persons of other/unknown race were 2.01 (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.31), 3.93 (CI, 3.59 to 4.30), 2.19 (CI, 1.98 to 2.42), and 1.57 (CI, 1.38 to 1.78), respectively. Geographic analyses showed that infections clustered in areas with higher proportions of non-White persons. Compared with White persons, adjusted hospitalization rates for African American persons, Hispanic persons, Asian persons, and persons of other/unknown race were 1.47 (CI, 1.03 to 2.09), 1.42 (CI, 1.11 to 1.82), 1.47 (CI, 1.13 to 1.92), and 1.03 (CI, 0.72 to 1.46), respectively. Adjusted analyses showed no racial differences in inpatient mortality or total mortality during the study period. For testing, comorbid conditions made the greatest relative contribution to model explanatory power (77.9%); race only accounted for 8.1%. Likelihood of infection was largely due to race (80.3%). For other outcomes, age was most important; race only contributed 4.5% for hospitalization, 12.8% for admission illness severity, 2.3% for in-hospital death, and 0.4% for any death. Limitation: The study involved an insured population in a highly integrated health system. Conclusion: Race was the most important predictor of SARS-CoV-2 infection. After infection, race was associated with increased hospitalization risk but not mortality. Primary Funding Source: The Permanente Medical Group, Inc.

Wake-up Call

The Safety and Immunologic Effectiveness of the Live Varicella-Zoster Vaccine in Patients Receiving Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Therapy: A Randomized Controlled Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 11

Background: The safety and effectiveness of live virus vaccines, such as the varicella-zoster vaccine, are unknown in patients with inflammatory diseases receiving immunomodulatory therapy such as tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis). Objective: To evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of the live attenuated zoster vaccine (ZVL) in patients receiving TNFis. Design: Randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02538341) Setting: Academic and community-based rheumatology, gastroenterology, and dermatology practices. Patients: Adults aged 50 years or older receiving TNFis for any indication. Intervention: Random assignment to ZVL versus placebo. Measurements: Glycoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISpot) from serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells measured at baseline and 6 weeks after vaccination. Suspected varicella infection or herpes zoster was clinically assessed using digital photographs and polymerase chain reaction on vesicular fluid. Results: Between March 2015 and December 2018, 617 participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive ZVL (n = 310) or placebo (n = 307) at 33 centers. Mean age was 62.7 years (SD, 7.5); 66.1% of participants were female, 90% were White, 8.2% were Black, and 5.9% were Hispanic. The most common TNFi indications were rheumatoid arthritis (57.6%) and psoriatic arthritis (24.1%); TNFi medications were adalimumab (32.7%), infliximab (31.3%), etanercept (21.2%), golimumab (9.1%), and certolizumab (5.7%). Concomitant therapies included methotrexate (48.0%) and oral glucocorticoids (10.5%). Through week 6, no cases of confirmed varicella infection were found; cumulative incidence of varicella infection or shingles was 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0% to 1.2%). At 6 weeks, compared with baseline, the mean increases in geometric mean fold rise as measured by gpELISA and ELISpot were 1.33 percentage points (CI, 1.17 to 1.51 percentage points) and 1.39 percentage points (CI, 1.07 to 1.82 percentage points), respectively. Limitation: Potentially limited generalizability to patients receiving other types of immunomodulators. Conclusion: This trial informs safety concerns related to use of live virus vaccines in patients receiving biologics. Primary Funding Source: The National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and the American College of Rheumatology.

Changes in Dialysis Center Quality Associated With the End-Stage Renal Disease Quality Incentive Program: An Observational Study With a Regression Discontinuity Design: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 8

Background: In 2012, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services started levying performance-based financial penalties against outpatient dialysis centers under the mandatory End-Stage Renal Disease Quality Incentive Program. Objective: To determine whether penalization was associated with improvement in dialysis center quality. Design: Leveraging the threshold for penalization (total performance score < 60), a regression discontinuity design was used to examine the effect of penalization on quality over 2 years. Publicly available Medicare data from 2015–2018 were used. The effect of penalization at dialysis centers with different characteristics (for example, size or chain affiliation) was also examined. Setting: United States. Participants: Outpatient dialysis centers (n = 5830). Measurements: Dialysis center total performance scores (a composite metric ranging from 0 to 100 based on clinical quality and adherence to reporting requirements) and individual measures that contribute to the total performance score. Results: There were 1109 (19.0%) outpatient dialysis centers that received penalties in 2017 on the basis of performance in 2015. Penalized centers were located in ZIP codes with a higher average proportion of non-White residents (36.4% vs. 31.2%; P < 0.001) and residents with lower median income ($49 290 vs. $51 686; P < 0.001). Penalization was not associated with improvement in total performance scores in 2017 (0.4 point [95% CI, −2.5 to 3.2 points]) or 2018 (0.3 point [CI, −2.8 to 3.4 points]). This was consistent across dialysis centers with different characteristics. There was also no association between penalization and improvement in specific measures. Limitation: The study could not account for how centers respond to penalization. Conclusion: Penalization under the End-Stage Renal Disease Quality Incentive Program was not associated with improvement in the quality of outpatient dialysis centers. Primary Funding Source: None.

Risk for Acute Myocardial Infarction After Ophthalmologic Procedures

Background: Preoperative cardiovascular evaluations are frequently done before ambulatory ophthalmologic procedures. However, whether these procedures can trigger an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unknown. Objective: To assess the short-term risk for AMI associated with ophthalmologic procedures. Design: Case-crossover design. Setting: Population-based nationwide study from Norway and Sweden. Participants: First-time patients with AMI, aged 40 years and older, identified via inpatient registries and linked to outpatient surgical procedures in Norway (2008 to 2014) and Sweden (2001 to 2014), respectively. Measurements: Using self-matching, for each participant, exposure to ophthalmologic procedures in the 0 to 7 days before AMI diagnosis (hazard period) was compared with an 8-day period 30 days earlier, that is, days 29 to 36 before AMI (control period) to estimate the relative risk for an AMI the week after an ophthalmologic procedure. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs were calculated, using conditional logistic regression. Only patients who had a procedure of interest during either the hazard or control period were included. Results: For the 806 patients with AMI included in this study, there was a lower likelihood of AMI in the week after an ophthalmologic procedure than during the control week (OR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.91). Furthermore, there was no evidence of increased risk for AMI when analyses were stratified by surgery subtype, anesthesia (local or general), duration, invasiveness (low, intermediate, or high), patient's age (<65 years or ≥65 years), or comorbidity (none vs. any). Limitation: Potential bias from time-varying confounders between the hazard and the control periods. Conclusion: Ophthalmologic procedures done in an outpatient setting did not seem to be associated with an increased risk for AMI. Primary Funding Source: Central Norway Regional Health Authority and the Swedish Research Council.