Long-Term Effect of Randomization to Calcium and Vitamin D Supplementation on Health in Older Women: Postintervention Follow-up of a Randomized Clinical Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 177, No 4

Background: Although calcium and vitamin D (CaD) supplementation may affect chronic disease in older women, evidence of long-term effects on health outcomes is limited. Objective: To evaluate long-term health outcomes among postmenopausal women in the Women’s Health Initiative CaD trial. Design: Post hoc analysis of long-term postintervention follow-up of the 7-year randomized intervention trial of CaD. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00000611) Setting: A multicenter (n = 40) trial across the United States. Participants: 36 282 postmenopausal women with no history of breast or colorectal cancer. Intervention: Random 1:1 assignment to 1000 mg of elemental calcium as calcium carbonate with 400 IU of vitamin D3 daily or placebo. Measurements: Incidence of colorectal, invasive breast, and total cancer; disease-specific and all-cause mortality; total cardiovascular disease (CVD); and hip fracture by randomization assignment (through December 2020). Analyses were stratified on personal supplement use. Results: For women randomly assigned to CaD versus placebo, a 7% reduction in cancer mortality was observed after a median cumulative follow-up of 22.3 years (1817 vs. 1943 deaths; hazard ratio [HR], 0.93 [95% CI, 0.87 to 0.99]), along with a 6% increase in CVD mortality (2621 vs. 2420 deaths; HR, 1.06 [CI, 1.01 to 1.12]). There was no overall effect on other measures, including all-cause mortality (7834 vs. 7748 deaths; HR, 1.00 [CI, 0.97 to 1.03]). Estimates for cancer incidence varied widely when stratified by whether participants reported supplement use before randomization, whereas estimates on mortality did not vary, except for CVD mortality. Limitation: Hip fracture and CVD outcomes were available on only a subset of participants, and effects of calcium versus vitamin D versus joint supplementation could not be disentangled. Conclusion: Calcium and vitamin D supplements seemed to reduce cancer mortality and increase CVD mortality after more than 20 years of follow-up among postmenopausal women, with no effect on all-cause mortality. Primary Funding Source: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Historical Redlining and Present-Day Nonsuicide Firearm Fatalities

Background: Redlining began in the 1930s with the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC); this discriminatory practice limited mortgage availability and reinforced concentrated poverty that still exists today. It is important to understand the potential health implications of this federally sanctioned segregation. Objective: To examine the relationship between historical redlining policies and present-day nonsuicide firearm fatalities. Design: Maps from the HOLC were overlaid with incidence of nonsuicide firearm fatalities from 2014 to 2022. A multilevel negative binomial regression model tested the association between modern-day firearm fatalities and HOLC historical grading (A [“best”] to D [“hazardous”]), controlling for year, HOLC area–level demographics, and state-level factors as fixed effects and a random intercept for city. Incidence rates (IRs) per 100 000 persons, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and adjusted IRRs (aIRRs) for each HOLC grade were estimated using A-rated areas as the reference. Setting: 202 cities with areas graded by the HOLC in the 1930s. Participants: Population of the 8597 areas assessed by the HOLC. Measurements: Nonsuicide firearm fatalities. Results: From 2014 to 2022, a total of 41 428 nonsuicide firearm fatalities occurred in HOLC-graded areas. The firearm fatality rate increased as the HOLC grade progressed from A to D. In A-graded areas, the IR was 3.78 (95% CI, 3.52 to 4.05) per 100 000 persons per year. In B-graded areas, the IR, IRR, and aIRR relative to A areas were 7.43 (CI, 7.24 to 7.62) per 100 000 persons per year, 2.12 (CI, 1.94 to 2.32), and 1.42 (CI, 1.30 to 1.54), respectively. In C-graded areas, these values were 11.24 (CI, 11.08 to 11.40) per 100 000 persons per year, 3.78 (CI, 3.47 to 4.12), and 1.90 (CI, 1.75 to 2.07), respectively. In D-graded areas, these values were 16.26 (CI, 16.01 to 16.52) per 100 000 persons per year, 5.51 (CI, 5.05 to 6.02), and 2.07 (CI, 1.90 to 2.25), respectively. Limitation: The Gun Violence Archive relies on media coverage and police reports. Conclusion: Discriminatory redlining policies from 80 years ago are associated with nonsuicide firearm fatalities today. Primary Funding Source: Fred Lovejoy Housestaff Research and Education Fund.

Evaluation of Strategies for Transitioning to Annual SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Campaigns in the United States

Background: The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has proposed administering annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of an annual SARS-CoV-2 vaccination campaign, quantify the health and economic benefits of a second dose provided to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older, and optimize the timing of a second dose. Design: An age-structured dynamic transmission model. Setting: United States. Participants: A synthetic population reflecting demographics and contact patterns in the United States. Intervention: Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 with age-specific uptake similar to that of influenza vaccination. Measurements: Incidence, hospitalizations, deaths, and direct health care cost. Results: The optimal timing between the first and second dose delivered to children younger than 2 years and adults aged 50 years or older in an annual vaccination campaign was estimated to be 5 months. In direct comparison with a single-dose campaign, a second booster dose results in 123 869 fewer hospitalizations (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 994 to 125 742 fewer hospitalizations) and 5524 fewer deaths (95% UI, 5434 to 5613 fewer deaths), averting $3.63 billion (95% UI, $3.57 billion to $3.69 billion) in costs over a single year. Limitations: Population immunity is subject to degrees of immune evasion for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants. The model was implemented in the absence of nonpharmaceutical interventions and preexisting vaccine-acquired immunity. Conclusion: The direct health care costs of SARS-CoV-2, particularly among adults aged 50 years or older, would be substantially reduced by administering a second dose 5 months after the initial dose. Primary Funding Source: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, Notsew Orm Sands Foundation, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and National Science Foundation.

Enough Is Enough: On the Road to Eliminating “Sophie’s Choice” for U.S. Prescription Drugs

Trends in Discharge Rates for Acute Pulmonary Embolism in U.S. Emergency Departments

Background: Outpatient management of select patients with low-risk acute pulmonary embolism (PE) has been proven to be safe and effective, yet recent evidence suggests that patients are still managed with hospitalization. Few studies have assessed contemporary real-world trends in discharge rates from U.S. emergency departments (EDs) for acute PE. Objective: To evaluate whether the proportion of discharges from EDs for acute PE changed between 2012 and 2020 and which baseline characteristics are associated with ED discharge. Design: Serial cross-sectional analysis. Setting: U.S. EDs participating in the National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. Patients: Patients with ED visits for acute PE between 2012 and 2020. Measurements: National trends in the proportion of discharges for acute PE and factors associated with ED discharge. Results: Between 2012 and 2020, there were approximately 1 635 300 visits for acute PE. Overall, ED discharge rates remained constant over time, with rates of 38.2% (95% CI, 17.9% to 64.0%) between 2012 and 2014 and 33.4% (CI, 21.0% to 49.0%) between 2018 and 2020 (adjusted risk ratio, 1.01 per year [CI, 0.89 to 1.14]). No baseline characteristics, including established risk stratification scores, were predictive of an increased likelihood of ED discharge; however, patients at teaching hospitals and those with private insurance were more likely to receive oral anticoagulation at discharge. Only 35.9% (CI, 23.9% to 50.0%) of patients who were considered low-risk according to their Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) class, 33.1% (CI, 21.6% to 47.0%) according to simplified PESI score, and 34.8% (CI, 23.3% to 48.0%) according to hemodynamic stability were discharged from the ED setting. Limitations: Cross-sectional survey design and inability to adjudicate diagnoses. Conclusion: In a representative nationwide sample, rates of discharge from the ED for acute PE appear to have remained constant between 2012 and 2020. Only one third of low-risk patients were discharged for outpatient management, and rates seem to have stabilized. Outpatient management of low-risk acute PE may still be largely underutilized in the United States. Primary Funding Source: None.

What Internal Medicine Physicians Need to Know About Contraception

How Would You Manage This Patient With Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction?: Grand Rounds Discussion From Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 176, No 12

The proportion of patients with new-onset heart failure who have preserved rather than reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFpEF and HFrEF) has been increasing over recent decades. In fact, HFpEF now outweighs HFrEF as the predominant heart failure subtype and likely remains underdiagnosed in the community. This is due in part to an aging population and a rise in other risk factors for HFpEF, including obesity and associated cardiometabolic disease. Whereas the diagnosis of HFrEF is relatively straightforward, the diagnosis of HFpEF is often more challenging because there can be other causes for symptoms, including dyspnea and fatigue, and cardinal physical examination findings of elevated jugular venous pressure or pulmonary congestion may not be evident at rest. In 2022, the American College of Cardiology, the American Heart Association, and the Heart Failure Society of America published a comprehensive guideline on heart failure that included recommendations for the management of HFpEF. The use of diuretics for the management of congestion remained the only class 1 (strong) recommendation. New recommendations included broader use of sodium–glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i, class 2a), and angiotensin receptor–neprilysin inhibitors (class 2b). In 2023, the American College of Cardiology published an expert consensus decision pathway for the management of HFpEF that suggests treatment strategies based on sex assigned at birth, ejection fraction, clinical evidence of congestion, and candidacy for SGLT2i therapy. Here, 2 experts, a cardiologist and a geriatrician, discuss their approach to the diagnosis and management of HFpEF and how they would apply guidelines to an individual patient.

When Clinical Prediction Is Steering the Ship, Beware the Drift of Its Wake

Parting Gifts

Development and Validation of a Protein Risk Score for Mortality in Heart Failure: A Community Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 177, No 1

Background: Heart failure (HF) is a complex clinical syndrome with high mortality. Current risk stratification approaches lack precision. High-throughput proteomics could improve risk prediction. Its use in clinical practice to guide the management of patients with HF depends on validation and evidence of clinical benefit. Objective: To develop and validate a protein risk score for mortality in patients with HF. Design: Community-based cohort. Setting: Southeast Minnesota. Participants: Patients with HF enrolled between 2003 and 2012 and followed through 2021. Measurements: A total of 7289 plasma proteins in 1351 patients with HF were measured using the SomaScan Assay (SomaLogic). A protein risk score was derived using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and temporal validation in patients enrolled between 2003 and 2007 (development cohort) and 2008 and 2012 (validation cohort). Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between the protein risk score and mortality. The performance of the protein risk score to predict 5-year mortality risk was assessed using calibration plots, decision curves, and relative utility analyses and compared with a clinical model, including the Meta‐Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure mortality risk score and N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide. Results: The development (n = 855; median age, 78 years; 50% women; 29% with ejection fraction <40%) and validation cohorts (n = 496; median age, 76 years; 45% women; 33% with ejection fraction <40%) were mostly similar. In the development cohort, 38 unique proteins were selected for the protein risk score. Independent of ejection fraction, the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration, reclassified mortality risk particularly at the extremes of the risk distribution, and showed greater clinical utility compared with the clinical model. Limitation: Participants were predominantly of European ancestry, potentially limiting the generalizability of the findings to different patient populations. Conclusion: Validation of the protein risk score demonstrated good calibration and evidence of predicted benefits to stratify the risk for death in HF superior to that of clinical methods. Further studies are needed to prospectively evaluate the score’s performance in diverse populations and determine risk thresholds for interventions. Primary Funding Source: Division of Intramural Research at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.