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Nirmatrelvir Plus Ritonavir for Early COVID-19 in a Large U.S. Health System: A Population-Based Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 176, No 1
Background: In the EPIC-HR (Evaluation of Protease Inhibition for Covid-19 in High-Risk Patients) trial, nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir led to an 89% reduction in hospitalization or death among unvaccinated outpatients with early COVID-19. The clinical impact of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir among vaccinated populations is uncertain. Objective: To assess whether nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir reduces risk for hospitalization or death among outpatients with early COVID-19 in the setting of prevalent SARS-CoV-2 immunity and immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Design: Population-based cohort study analyzed to emulate a clinical trial using inverse probability–weighted models to account for anticipated bias in treatment. Setting: A large health care system providing care for 1.5 million patients in Massachusetts and New Hampshire during the Omicron wave (1 January to 17 July 2022). Patients: 44 551 nonhospitalized adults (90.3% with ≥3 vaccine doses) aged 50 years or older with COVID-19 and no contraindications for nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir. Measurements: The primary outcome was a composite of hospitalization within 14 days or death within 28 days of a COVID-19 diagnosis. Results: During the study period, 12 541 (28.1%) patients were prescribed nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir, and 32 010 (71.9%) were not. Patients prescribed nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir were more likely to be older, have more comorbidities, and be vaccinated. The composite outcome of hospitalization or death occurred in 69 (0.55%) patients who were prescribed nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir and 310 (0.97%) who were not (adjusted risk ratio, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.42 to 0.75]). Recipients of nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir had lower risk for hospitalization (adjusted risk ratio, 0.60 [CI, 0.44 to 0.81]) and death (adjusted risk ratio, 0.29 [CI, 0.12 to 0.71]). Limitation: Potential residual confounding due to differential access to COVID-19 vaccines, diagnostic tests, and treatment. Conclusion: The overall risk for hospitalization or death was already low (1%) after an outpatient diagnosis of COVID-19, but nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir reduced this risk further. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.
Temporal Improvements in COVID-19 Outcomes for Hospitalized Adults: A Post Hoc Observational Study of Remdesivir Group Participants in the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial
Background: The COVID-19 standard of care (SOC) evolved rapidly during 2020 and 2021, but its cumulative effect over time is unclear. Objective: To evaluate whether recovery and mortality improved as SOC evolved, using data from ACTT (Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial). Design: ACTT is a series of phase 3, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials that evaluated COVID-19 therapeutics from February 2020 through May 2021. ACTT-1 compared remdesivir plus SOC to placebo plus SOC, and in ACTT-2 and ACTT-3, remdesivir plus SOC was the control group. This post hoc analysis compared recovery and mortality between these comparable sequential cohorts of patients who received remdesivir plus SOC, adjusting for baseline characteristics with propensity score weighting. The analysis was repeated for participants in ACTT-3 and ACTT-4 who received remdesivir plus dexamethasone plus SOC. Trends in SOC that could explain outcome improvements were analyzed. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04280705 [ACTT-1], NCT04401579 [ACTT-2], NCT04492475 [ACTT-3], and NCT04640168 [ACTT-4]) Setting: 94 hospitals in 10 countries (86% U.S. participants). Participants: Adults hospitalized with COVID-19. Intervention: SOC. Measurements: 28-day mortality and recovery. Results: Although outcomes were better in ACTT-2 than in ACTT-1, adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were close to 1 (HR for recovery, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.92 to 1.17]; HR for mortality, 0.90 [CI, 0.56 to 1.40]). Comparable patients were less likely to be intubated in ACTT-2 than in ACTT-1 (odds ratio, 0.75 [CI, 0.53 to 0.97]), and hydroxychloroquine use decreased. Outcomes improved from ACTT-2 to ACTT-3 (HR for recovery, 1.43 [CI, 1.24 to 1.64]; HR for mortality, 0.45 [CI, 0.21 to 0.97]). Potential explanatory factors (SOC trends, case surges, and variant trends) were similar between ACTT-2 and ACTT-3, except for increased dexamethasone use (11% to 77%). Outcomes were similar in ACTT-3 and ACTT-4. Antibiotic use decreased gradually across all stages. Limitation: Unmeasured confounding. Conclusion: Changes in patient composition explained improved outcomes from ACTT-1 to ACTT-2 but not from ACTT-2 to ACTT-3, suggesting improved SOC. These results support excluding nonconcurrent controls from analysis of platform trials in rapidly changing therapeutic areas. Primary Funding Source: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
Effects of Dapagliflozin on Hospitalizations in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis of DAPA-CKD: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 176, No 1
Background: Acute hospitalizations are common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and often lead to decreases in health-related quality of life and increased care costs. Objective: To determine the effects of dapagliflozin on first hospitalizations and all (first and subsequent) hospitalizations and to explore effects on cause-specific hospitalizations. Design: Post hoc analysis of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03036150) Setting: 386 ambulatory practice sites in 21 countries from 2 February 2017 through 12 June 2020. Participants: Adults with an estimated glomerular filtration rate of 25 to 75 mL/min/1.73 m2 and a urinary albumin–creatinine ratio of 200 to 5000 mg/g, with and without type 2 diabetes. Intervention: Dapagliflozin, 10 mg once daily, or matching placebo (1:1 ratio). Measurements: The effects of dapagliflozin on first hospitalizations for any cause, all hospitalizations, and cause-specific (first and recurrent) hospitalizations were determined. The reported system organ class was used to evaluate reasons for admission. Hospitalizations were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models (first hospitalization), the Lin–Wei–Yang–Ying method (all hospitalizations or death), and negative binomial models (cause-specific hospitalizations). Results: The study included 4304 patients (mean age, 61.8 years; 33.1% women). During a median follow-up of 2.4 years, 2072 hospitalizations were reported among 1224 (28.4%) participants. Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced risk for a first hospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.94]) and all hospitalizations or death (rate ratio, 0.79 [CI, 0.70 to 0.89]). There was no evidence that the effects of dapagliflozin on first and all hospitalizations varied by baseline presence of type 2 diabetes (P for interaction = 0.60 for each). Compared with placebo, dapagliflozin reduced the rate of admissions due to cardiac disorders, renal and urinary disorders, metabolism and nutrition disorders, and neoplasms. Limitations: This was a post hoc analysis and should be viewed as hypothesis-generating. Hospitalizations and causes were reported by site investigators and were not centrally adjudicated. Conclusion: Dapagliflozin reduced the risk for hospitalization for any cause in patients with CKD with and without type 2 diabetes. Primary Funding Source: AstraZeneca.
Total Ankle Replacement Versus Arthrodesis for End-Stage Ankle Osteoarthritis: A Randomized Controlled Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 175, No 12
Background: End-stage ankle osteoarthritis causes severe pain and disability. There are no randomized trials comparing the 2 main surgical treatments: total ankle replacement (TAR) and ankle fusion (AF). Objective: To determine which treatment is superior in terms of clinical scores and adverse events. Design: A multicenter, parallel-group, open-label randomized trial. (ISRCTN registry number: 60672307) Setting: 17 National Health Service trusts across the United Kingdom. Patients: Patients with end-stage ankle osteoarthritis, aged 50 to 85 years, and suitable for either procedure. Intervention: Patients were randomly assigned to TAR or AF surgical treatment. Measurements: The primary outcome was change in Manchester–Oxford Foot Questionnaire walking/standing (MOXFQ-W/S) domain scores between baseline and 52 weeks after surgery. No blinding was possible. Results: Between 6 March 2015 and 10 January 2019, a total of 303 patients were randomly assigned; mean age was 68 years, and 71% were men. Twenty-one patients withdrew before surgery, and 281 clinical scores were analyzed. At 52 weeks, the mean MOXFQ-W/S scores improved for both groups. The adjusted difference in the change in MOXFQ-W/S scores from baseline was −5.6 (95% CI, −12.5 to 1.4), showing that TAR improved more than AF, but the difference was not considered clinically or statistically significant. The number of adverse events was similar between groups (109 vs. 104), but there were more wound healing issues in the TAR group and more thromboembolic events and nonunion in the AF group. The symptomatic nonunion rate for AF was 7%. A post hoc analysis suggested superiority of fixed-bearing TAR over AF (−11.1 [CI, −19.3 to −2.9]). Limitation: Only 52-week data; pragmatic design creates heterogeneity of implants and surgical techniques. Conclusion: Both TAR and AF improve MOXFQ-W/S and had similar clinical scores and number of harms. Total ankle replacement had greater wound healing complications and nerve injuries, whereas AF had greater thromboembolism and nonunion, with a symptomatic nonunion rate of 7%. Primary Funding Source: National Institute for Health and Care Research Heath Technology Assessment Programme.
Participant Recruitment From Low- and Middle-Income Countries for Pivotal Trials of Drugs Approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration: A Cross-Sectional Analysis: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 175, No 12
Background: Many participants in clinical trials supporting U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug approvals are recruited from outside the United States, including from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Where participants are recruited for pivotal trials has implications for ethical research conduct and generalizability. Objective: To describe LMIC recruitment for pivotal trials of newly approved drugs for cancer, neurologic disease, and cardiovascular disease. Design: Cross-sectional analysis. Setting: Pivotal trials of new cancer, cardiovascular, and neurologic drugs approved from 2012 to 2019 matched to ClinicalTrials.gov, FDA records, and publications. Measurements: Host countries and available per country enrollments were extracted. The primary end point was the proportion of pivotal trials enrolling participants in LMICs. The secondary end point was the proportion of pivotal trial participants contributed by LMICs for each indication area. Results: Data were obtained from 66 new drugs and 144 pivotal clinical trials. All cardiovascular approvals (12 drugs, 29 trials) and neurologic approvals (26 drugs, 54 trials) were analyzed, as well as a random sample of cancer approvals (28 of 85 drugs [33%]) matched to their pivotal trials (61 of 210 trials [29%]). Among the trials, 56% in cancer, 79% in cardiovascular disease, and 56% in neurology recruited from an LMIC. For multicountry trials, country-level enrollment figures were not available for 71 trials (55%). For those reporting per country enrollment, the percentage of participants recruited from LMICs was 8% for cancer trials, 36% for cardiovascular trials, and 17% for neurology trials. Limitations: The study was limited to FDA-approved drugs in 3 areas, including a sample of cancer drugs. Pivotal trials of nonapproved drugs or drugs for other indications were not captured. Conclusion: Most pivotal trials for FDA-approved drugs recruit from LMICs. Publications and FDA documents generally do not provide country-level data on recruitment. Primary Funding Source: None.
Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters Against Infection, Hospitalization, and Death: A Target Trial Emulation in the Omicron (B.1.1.529) Variant Era
Background: The effectiveness of a third mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose (booster dose) against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant is uncertain, especially in older, high-risk populations. Objective: To determine mRNA booster vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalization, and death in the Omicron era by booster type, primary vaccine type, time since primary vaccination, age, and comorbidity burden. Design: Retrospective matched cohort study designed to emulate a target trial of booster vaccination versus no booster, conducted from 1 December 2021 to 31 March 2022. Setting: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs health care system. Participants: Persons who had received 2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine doses at least 5 months earlier. Intervention: Booster monovalent mRNA vaccination (Pfizer–BioNTech's BNT162b2 or Moderna's mRNA-1273) versus no booster. Measurements: Booster VE. Results: Each group included 490 838 well-matched persons, who were predominantly male (88%), had a mean age of 63.0 years (SD, 14.0), and were followed for up to 121 days (mean, 79.8 days). Booster VE more than 10 days after a booster dose was 42.3% (95% CI, 40.6% to 43.9%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 53.3% (CI, 48.1% to 58.0%) against SARS-CoV-2–related hospitalization, and 79.1% (CI, 71.2% to 84.9%) against SARS-CoV-2–related death. Booster VE was similar for different booster types (BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273), age groups, and primary vaccination regimens but was significantly higher with longer time since primary vaccination and higher comorbidity burden. Limitation: Predominantly male population. Conclusion: Booster mRNA vaccination was highly effective in preventing death and moderately effective in preventing infection and hospitalization for up to 4 months after administration in the Omicron era. Increased uptake of booster vaccination, which is currently suboptimal, should be pursued to limit the morbidity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially in persons with high comorbidity burden. Primary Funding Source: U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs.
Major Update 2: Antibody Response and Risk for Reinfection After SARS-CoV-2 Infection—Final Update of a Living, Rapid Review
Background: The durability of the antibody response after SARS-CoV-2 infection and the role of antibodies in protection against reinfection are unclear. Purpose: To synthesize evidence on the SARS-CoV-2 antibody response and reinfection risk with a focus on gaps identified in our prior reports. Data Sources: MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, CINAHL, World Health Organization Research Database, and reference lists from 16 December 2021 through 8 July 2022, with surveillance through 22 August 2022. Study Selection: English-language, cohort studies evaluating IgG antibody duration at least 12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, the antibody response among immunocompromised adults, predictors of nonseroconversion, and reinfection risk. Data Extraction: Two investigators sequentially extracted study data and rated quality. Data Synthesis: Most adults had IgG antibodies after SARS-CoV-2 infection at time points greater than 12 months (low strength of evidence [SoE]). Although most immunocompromised adults develop antibodies, the overall proportion with antibodies is lower compared with immunocompetent adults (moderate SoE for organ transplant patients and low SoE for patients with cancer or HIV). Prior infection provided substantial, sustained protection against symptomatic reinfection with the Delta variant (high SoE) and reduced the risk for severe disease due to Omicron variants (moderate SoE). Prior infection was less protective against reinfection with Omicron overall (moderate SoE), but protection from earlier variants waned rapidly (low SoE). Limitation: Single review for abstract screening and sequential review for study selection, data abstraction, and quality assessment. Conclusion: Evidence for a sustained antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 infection is considerable for both Delta and Omicron variants. Prior infection protected against reinfection with both variants, but, for Omicron, protection was weaker and waned rapidly. This information may have limited clinical applicability as new variants emerge. Primary Funding Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. (PROSPERO: CRD42020207098)
Challenged Urine Bicarbonate Excretion as a Measure of Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Conductance Regulator Function in Cystic Fibrosis
Background: In cystic fibrosis (CF), renal base excretion is impaired. Accordingly, challenged urine bicarbonate excretion may be an in vivo biomarker of cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) function. Objective: To evaluate the association between challenged bicarbonate excretion and clinical characteristics at baseline, quantify the CFTR modulator drug elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor–induced changes of challenged bicarbonate excretion after 6 months of treatment, and characterize the intraindividual variation in healthy adults. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Cystic fibrosis clinic, Aarhus University Hospital, Denmark. Patients: Fifty adult patients with CF starting CFTR modulator therapy with elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor between May 2020 and June 2021. Measurements: Quantification of urine bicarbonate excretion after an acute oral sodium bicarbonate challenge before and 6 months after elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor treatment. Results: At baseline, challenged urine bicarbonate excretion was associated with several CF disease characteristics. Bicarbonate excretion was higher in patients with residual function mutations. A higher bicarbonate excretion was associated with better lung function, pancreatic sufficiency, and lower relative risk for chronic pseudomonas infections. Elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor treatment increased bicarbonate excretion by 3.9 mmol/3 h (95% CI, 1.6 to 6.1 mmol/3 h), reaching about 70% of that seen in healthy control participants. In healthy control participants, individual bicarbonate excretion at each visit correlated with the individual mean bicarbonate excretion. The median coefficient of variation was 31%. Limitation: Single-center study without a placebo-controlled group. Conclusion: Although further studies are needed to address the performance and sensitivity of this approach, this early-stage evaluation shows that challenged urine bicarbonate excretion may offer a new, simple, and safe quantification of CFTR function and the extent of its pharmacologic improvement. Elexacaftor/tezacaftor/ivacaftor partially restores renal CFTR function in patients with CF, likely resulting in decreased risk for electrolyte disorders and metabolic alkalosis. Primary Funding Source: Innovation Fund Denmark.
Long-Term Changes in the Size of Pituitary Microadenomas
Background: The estimated prevalence of pituitary lesions is 10% to 38.5% in radiologic studies. However, how frequently these incidental lesions should be monitored by serial pituitary magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) remains unclear. Objective: To evaluate changes in pituitary microadenomas over time. Design: Retrospective, longitudinal cohort study. Setting: Mass General Brigham, Boston, Massachusetts. Patients: Evidence of pituitary microadenoma from MRI. Measurements: Dimensions of pituitary microadenomas. Results: During the study period (from 2003 to 2021), 414 patients with pituitary microadenomas were identified. Of the 177 patients who had more than 1 MRI, 78 had no change in the size of the microadenoma over time, 49 had an increase in size, 34 had a decrease in size, and 16 had both an increase and decrease in size. By linear mixed model analysis, the estimated slope was 0.016 mm/y (95% CI, −0.037 to 0.069). In the subgroup analysis, pituitary adenomas with a baseline size of 4 mm or less tended to increase in size. The estimated slope was 0.09 mm/y (CI, 0.020 to 0.161). In contrast, in the subgroup with baseline tumor size greater than 4 mm, the size tended to decrease. The estimated slope was −0.063 mm/y (CI, −0.141 to 0.015). Limitation: Retrospective cohort, some patients were lost to follow-up for unknown reasons, and data were limited to local large institutions. Conclusion: During the study period, approximately two thirds of the microadenomas remained unchanged or decreased in size. The growth, if any, was slow. These findings suggest that less frequent pituitary MRI surveillance for patients with incidental pituitary microadenomas may be safe. Primary Funding Source: None.
Ticagrelor–Aspirin Versus Clopidogrel–Aspirin Among CYP2C19 Loss-of-Function Carriers With Minor Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack in Relation to Renal Function: A Post Hoc Analysis of the CHANCE-2 Trial
Background: Evidence on the risk–benefit ratio of dual antiplatelet therapies among patients with stroke and impaired renal function is limited and inconsistent. Objective: To investigate the effect of renal function on the efficacy and safety of ticagrelor–aspirin versus clopidogrel–aspirin treatment. Design: Post hoc analysis of a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04078737) Setting: 202 centers in China. Patients: CYP2C19 loss-of-function allele carriers with minor stroke or transient ischemic attack. Intervention: Ticagrelor–aspirin and clopidogrel–aspirin. Measurements: Renal function was evaluated by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels. The primary efficacy and safety outcomes were recurrent stroke and severe or moderate bleeding within 90 days, respectively. Results: Among 6378 patients, 4050 (63.5%) had normal (eGFR ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2), 2010 (31.5%) had mildly decreased (eGFR 60 to 89 mL/min/1.73 m2), and 318 (5.0%) had moderately to severely decreased (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2) renal function. The corresponding differences in recurrent stroke between ticagrelor–aspirin and clopidogrel–aspirin for normal, mildly decreased, and moderately to severely decreased renal function was −2.8 percentage points (95% CI, −4.4 to −1.3 percentage points) (hazard ratio [HR], 0.63 [CI, 0.49 to 0.81]), −0.2 percentage point (CI, −2.4 to 2.0 percentage points) (HR, 0.98 [CI, 0.69 to 1.39]), and 3.7 percentage points (CI, −2.3 to 10.1 percentage points) (HR, 1.31 [CI, 0.48 to 3.55]), respectively. Rates of severe or moderate bleeding did not substantially differ by treatment assignments across eGFR categories. Limitation: Renal function was only evaluated by using eGFR, and the proportion of patients with severely decreased renal function was low. Conclusion: Patients with normal, rather than impaired, renal function received greater benefit from ticagrelor–aspirin versus clopidogrel–aspirin. Primary Funding Source: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China.