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Treatment of Acute Pain in Adults With Sickle Cell Disease in an Infusion Center Versus the Emergency Department: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 9
Background: Patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) have vaso-occlusive crises (VOCs). Infusion centers (ICs) are alternatives to emergency department (ED) care and may improve patient outcomes. Objective: To assess whether care in ICs or EDs leads to better outcomes for the treatment of uncomplicated VOCs. Design: Prospective cohort. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02411396) Setting: 4 U.S. sites, with recruitment between April 2015 and December 2016. Participants: Adults with SCD living within 60 miles of a study site. Measurements: Participants were followed for 18 months after enrollment. Outcomes of interest were time to first dose of parenteral pain medication, whether pain reassessment was completed within 30 minutes after the first dose, and patient disposition on discharge from the acute care visit. Treatment effects for ICs versus EDs were estimated using a time-varying propensity score adjustment. Results: Researchers enrolled 483 participants; the 269 who had acute care visits on weekdays are included in this report. With inverse probability of treatment–weighted adjustment, the mean time to first dose was 62 minutes in ICs and 132 minutes in EDs; the difference was 70 minutes (95% CI, 54 to 98 minutes; E-value, 2.8). The probability of pain reassessment within 30 minutes of the first dose of parenteral pain medication was 3.8 times greater (CI, 2.63 to 5.64 times greater; E-value, 4.7) in the IC than the ED. The probability that a participant’s visit would end in admission to the hospital was smaller by a factor of 4 (0.25 [CI, 0.18 to 0.33]) with treatment in an IC versus an ED. Limitation: The study was restricted to participants with uncomplicated VOCs. Conclusion: In adults with SCD having a VOC, treatment in an IC is associated with substantially better outcomes than treatment in an ED. Primary Funding Source: Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute.
Quantification of Occupational and Community Risk Factors for SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity Among Health Care Workers in a Large U.S. Health Care System
Background: Identifying occupational risk factors for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among health care workers (HCWs) can improve HCW and patient safety. Objective: To quantify demographic, occupational, and community risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among HCWs in a large health care system. Design: A logistic regression model was fitted to data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in April to June 2020, linking risk factors for occupational and community exposure to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. Setting: A large academic health care system in the Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan area. Participants: Employees and medical staff members elected to participate in SARS-CoV-2 serology testing offered to all HCWs as part of a quality initiative and completed a survey on exposure to COVID-19 and use of personal protective equipment. Measurements: Demographic risk factors for COVID-19, residential ZIP code incidence of COVID-19, occupational exposure to HCWs or patients who tested positive on polymerase chain reaction test, and use of personal protective equipment as potential risk factors for infection. The outcome was SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity. Results: Adjusted SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was estimated to be 3.8% (95% CI, 3.4% to 4.3%) (positive, n = 582) among the 10 275 HCWs (35% of the Emory Healthcare workforce) who participated in the survey. Community contact with a person known or suspected to have COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.9 [CI, 1.4 to 2.6]; 77 positive persons [10.3%]) and community COVID-19 incidence (aOR, 1.5 [CI, 1.0 to 2.2]) increased the odds of infection. Black individuals were at high risk (aOR, 2.1 [CI, 1.7 to 2.6]; 238 positive persons [8.3%]). Limitations: Participation rates were modest and key workplace exposures, including job and infection prevention practices, changed rapidly in the early phases of the pandemic. Conclusion: Demographic and community risk factors, including contact with a COVID-19–positive person and Black race, are more strongly associated with SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity among HCWs than is exposure in the workplace. Primary Funding Source: Emory COVID-19 Response Collaborative.
Racial Disparities in COVID-19 Testing and Outcomes: Retrospective Cohort Study in an Integrated Health System: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 6
Background: Racial disparities exist in outcomes after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Objective: To evaluate the contribution of race/ethnicity in SARS-CoV-2 testing, infection, and outcomes. Design: Retrospective cohort study (1 February 2020 to 31 May 2020). Setting: Integrated health care delivery system in Northern California. Participants: Adult health plan members. Measurements: Age, sex, neighborhood deprivation index, comorbid conditions, acute physiology indices, and race/ethnicity; SARS-CoV-2 testing and incidence of positive test results; and hospitalization, illness severity, and mortality. Results: Among 3 481 716 eligible members, 42.0% were White, 6.4% African American, 19.9% Hispanic, and 18.6% Asian; 13.0% were of other or unknown race. Of eligible members, 91 212 (2.6%) were tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection and 3686 had positive results (overall incidence, 105.9 per 100 000 persons; by racial group, White, 55.1; African American, 123.1; Hispanic, 219.6; Asian, 111.7; other/unknown, 79.3). African American persons had the highest unadjusted testing and mortality rates, White persons had the lowest testing rates, and those with other or unknown race had the lowest mortality rates. Compared with White persons, adjusted testing rates among non-White persons were marginally higher, but infection rates were significantly higher; adjusted odds ratios [aORs] for African American persons, Hispanic persons, Asian persons, and persons of other/unknown race were 2.01 (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.31), 3.93 (CI, 3.59 to 4.30), 2.19 (CI, 1.98 to 2.42), and 1.57 (CI, 1.38 to 1.78), respectively. Geographic analyses showed that infections clustered in areas with higher proportions of non-White persons. Compared with White persons, adjusted hospitalization rates for African American persons, Hispanic persons, Asian persons, and persons of other/unknown race were 1.47 (CI, 1.03 to 2.09), 1.42 (CI, 1.11 to 1.82), 1.47 (CI, 1.13 to 1.92), and 1.03 (CI, 0.72 to 1.46), respectively. Adjusted analyses showed no racial differences in inpatient mortality or total mortality during the study period. For testing, comorbid conditions made the greatest relative contribution to model explanatory power (77.9%); race only accounted for 8.1%. Likelihood of infection was largely due to race (80.3%). For other outcomes, age was most important; race only contributed 4.5% for hospitalization, 12.8% for admission illness severity, 2.3% for in-hospital death, and 0.4% for any death. Limitation: The study involved an insured population in a highly integrated health system. Conclusion: Race was the most important predictor of SARS-CoV-2 infection. After infection, race was associated with increased hospitalization risk but not mortality. Primary Funding Source: The Permanente Medical Group, Inc.
The Safety and Immunologic Effectiveness of the Live Varicella-Zoster Vaccine in Patients Receiving Tumor Necrosis Factor Inhibitor Therapy: A Randomized Controlled Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 174, No 11
Background: The safety and effectiveness of live virus vaccines, such as the varicella-zoster vaccine, are unknown in patients with inflammatory diseases receiving immunomodulatory therapy such as tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis). Objective: To evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of the live attenuated zoster vaccine (ZVL) in patients receiving TNFis. Design: Randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02538341) Setting: Academic and community-based rheumatology, gastroenterology, and dermatology practices. Patients: Adults aged 50 years or older receiving TNFis for any indication. Intervention: Random assignment to ZVL versus placebo. Measurements: Glycoprotein enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (gpELISA) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISpot) from serum and peripheral blood mononuclear cells measured at baseline and 6 weeks after vaccination. Suspected varicella infection or herpes zoster was clinically assessed using digital photographs and polymerase chain reaction on vesicular fluid. Results: Between March 2015 and December 2018, 617 participants were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive ZVL (n = 310) or placebo (n = 307) at 33 centers. Mean age was 62.7 years (SD, 7.5); 66.1% of participants were female, 90% were White, 8.2% were Black, and 5.9% were Hispanic. The most common TNFi indications were rheumatoid arthritis (57.6%) and psoriatic arthritis (24.1%); TNFi medications were adalimumab (32.7%), infliximab (31.3%), etanercept (21.2%), golimumab (9.1%), and certolizumab (5.7%). Concomitant therapies included methotrexate (48.0%) and oral glucocorticoids (10.5%). Through week 6, no cases of confirmed varicella infection were found; cumulative incidence of varicella infection or shingles was 0.0% (95% CI, 0.0% to 1.2%). At 6 weeks, compared with baseline, the mean increases in geometric mean fold rise as measured by gpELISA and ELISpot were 1.33 percentage points (CI, 1.17 to 1.51 percentage points) and 1.39 percentage points (CI, 1.07 to 1.82 percentage points), respectively. Limitation: Potentially limited generalizability to patients receiving other types of immunomodulators. Conclusion: This trial informs safety concerns related to use of live virus vaccines in patients receiving biologics. Primary Funding Source: The National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and the American College of Rheumatology.
Development of Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP), a Calculator to Predict Severe Disease or Death in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19
Background: Predicting the clinical trajectory of individual patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging but necessary to inform clinical care. The majority of COVID-19 prognostic tools use only data present upon admission and do not incorporate changes occurring after admission. Objective: To develop the Severe COVID-19 Adaptive Risk Predictor (SCARP) (https://rsconnect.biostat.jhsph.edu/covid_trajectory/), a novel tool that can provide dynamic risk predictions for progression from moderate disease to severe illness or death in patients with COVID-19 at any time within the first 14 days of their hospitalization. Design: Retrospective observational cohort study. Settings: Five hospitals in Maryland and Washington, D.C. Patients: Patients who were hospitalized between 5 March and 4 December 2020 with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) confirmed by nucleic acid test and symptomatic disease. Measurements: A clinical registry for patients hospitalized with COVID-19 was the primary data source; data included demographic characteristics, admission source, comorbid conditions, time-varying vital signs, laboratory measurements, and clinical severity. Random forest for survival, longitudinal, and multivariate (RF-SLAM) data analysis was applied to predict the 1-day and 7-day risks for progression to severe disease or death for any given day during the first 14 days of hospitalization. Results: Among 3163 patients admitted with moderate COVID-19, 228 (7%) became severely ill or died in the next 24 hours; an additional 355 (11%) became severely ill or died in the next 7 days. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) for 1-day risk predictions for progression to severe disease or death was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.90) and 0.89 (CI, 0.87 to 0.91) during the first and second weeks of hospitalization, respectively. The AUC for 7-day risk predictions for progression to severe disease or death was 0.83 (CI, 0.83 to 0.84) and 0.87 (CI, 0.86 to 0.89) during the first and second weeks of hospitalization, respectively. Limitation: The SCARP tool was developed by using data from a single health system. Conclusion: Using the predictive power of RF-SLAM and longitudinal data from more than 3000 patients hospitalized with COVID-19, an interactive tool was developed that rapidly and accurately provides the probability of an individual patient's progression to severe illness or death on the basis of readily available clinical information. Primary Funding Source: Hopkins inHealth and COVID-19 Administrative Supplement for the HHS Region 3 Treatment Center from the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response.
Recurrence of Colorectal Neoplastic Polyps After Incomplete Resection
Background: Incomplete resection of neoplastic polyps is considered an important reason for the development of colorectal cancer. However, there are no data on the natural history of polyps that were incompletely removed. Objective: To examine the risk for metachronous neoplasia during surveillance colonoscopy after documented incomplete polyp resection. Design: Observational cohort study of patients who participated in the CARE (Complete Adenoma REsection) study (2009 to 2012). Setting: 2 academic medical centers. Patients: Patients who had resection of a 5- to 20-mm neoplastic polyp, had a documented complete or incomplete resection, and had a surveillance examination. Measurements: Segment metachronous neoplasia, defined as the proportion of colon segments with at least 1 neoplastic polyp at first surveillance examination, was measured. Segment metachronous neoplasia was compared between segments with a prior incomplete polyp resection (incomplete segments) and those with a prior complete resection (complete segments), accounting for clustering of segments within patients. Results: Of 233 participants in the original study, 166 (71%) had at least 1 surveillance examination. Median time to surveillance was shorter after incomplete versus complete resection (median, 17 vs. 45 months). The risk for any metachronous neoplasia was greater in segments with incomplete versus complete resection (52% vs. 23%; risk difference [RD], 28% [95% CI, 9% to 47%]; P = 0.004). Incomplete segments also had a greater number of neoplastic polyps (mean, 0.8 vs. 0.3; RD, 0.50 [CI, 0.1 to 0.9]; P = 0.008) and greater risk for advanced neoplasia (18% vs. 3%; RD, 15% [CI, 1% to 29%]; P = 0.034). Incomplete resection was the strongest independent factor associated with metachronous neoplasia (odds ratio, 3.0 [CI, 1.12 to 8.17]). Limitation: Potential patient selection bias due to incomplete follow-up. Conclusion: This natural history study found a statistically significantly greater risk for future neoplasia and advanced neoplasia in colon segments after incomplete resection compared with segments with complete resection. Primary Funding Source: None.
College Campuses and COVID-19 Mitigation: Clinical and Economic Value
Background: Colleges in the United States are determining how to operate safely amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Objective: To examine the clinical outcomes, cost, and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on college campuses. Design: The Clinical and Economic Analysis of COVID-19 interventions (CEACOV) model, a dynamic microsimulation model, was used to examine alternative mitigation strategies. The CEACOV model tracks infections accrued by students and faculty, accounting for community transmissions. Data Sources: Data from published literature were used to obtain parameters related to COVID-19 and contact-hours. Target Population: Undergraduate students and faculty at U.S. colleges. Time Horizon: One semester (105 days). Perspective: Modified societal. Intervention: COVID-19 mitigation strategies, including social distancing, masks, and routine laboratory screening. Outcome Measures: Infections among students and faculty per 5000 students and per 1000 faculty, isolation days, tests, costs, cost per infection prevented, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Results of Base-Case Analysis: Among students, mitigation strategies reduced COVID-19 cases from 3746 with no mitigation to 493 with extensive social distancing and masks, and further to 151 when laboratory testing was added among asymptomatic persons every 3 days. Among faculty, these values were 164, 28, and 25 cases, respectively. Costs ranged from about $0.4 million for minimal social distancing to about $0.9 million to $2.1 million for strategies involving laboratory testing ($10 per test), depending on testing frequency. Extensive social distancing with masks cost $170 per infection prevented ($49 200 per QALY) compared with masks alone. Adding routine laboratory testing increased cost per infection prevented to between $2010 and $17 210 (cost per QALY gained, $811 400 to $2 804 600). Results of Sensitivity Analysis: Results were most sensitive to test costs. Limitation: Data are from multiple sources. Conclusion: Extensive social distancing with a mandatory mask-wearing policy can prevent most COVID-19 cases on college campuses and is very cost-effective. Routine laboratory testing would prevent 96% of infections and require low-cost tests to be economically attractive. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.