Association Between Vascular 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Uptake at Diagnosis and Change in Aortic Dimensions in Giant Cell Arteritis: A Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 176, No 10

Background: Previous studies have shown that patients with giant cell arteritis (GCA) who have vascular 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) uptake at diagnosis are at increased risk for thoracic aortic complications. Objective: To measure the association between vascular FDG uptake at diagnosis and the change in aortic dimensions. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: University Hospitals Leuven. Patients: 106 patients with GCA and FDG positron emission tomography (PET) imaging 3 days or less after initiation of glucocorticoids. Measurements: Patients had PET and computed tomography (CT) imaging at diagnosis and CT imaging yearly for a maximum of 10 years. The PET scans were scored 0 to 3 in 7 vascular areas and summed to a total vascular score (TVS). The PET scan results were positive when FDG uptake was grade 2 or greater in any large vessel. The association between vascular FDG uptake and aortic dimensions was estimated by linear mixed-effects models with random intercept and slope. Results: When compared with patients with a negative PET scan result, those with a positive scan result had a greater increase in the diameter of the ascending aorta (difference in 5-year progression, 1.58 mm [95% CI, 0.41 to 2.74 mm]), the diameter of the descending aorta (1.32 mm [CI, 0.38 to 2.26 mm]), and the volume of the thoracic aorta (20.5 cm³ [CI, 4.5 to 36.5 cm³]). These thoracic aortic dimensions were also positively associated with TVS. Patients with a positive PET scan result had a higher risk for thoracic aortic aneurysms (adjusted hazard ratio, 10.21 [CI, 1.25 to 83.3]). Limitation: The lengthy inclusion and follow-up period resulted in missing data and the use of different PET machines. Conclusion: Higher TVS was associated with greater yearly increase in thoracic aortic dimensions. Performing PET imaging at diagnosis may help to estimate the risk for aortic aneurysm formation. Primary Funding Source: None.

Regulatory Review Duration and Differences in Submission Times of Drugs in the United States and Europe, 2011 to 2020

The speed of drug regulatory agencies in the United States and Europe is often a source of discussion. The objective of this research was to assess regulatory review duration of first and supplementary indications approved between 2011 and 2020 in the United States and Europe (European Union [EU] and Switzerland) and differences in submission times between the United States and Europe. Descriptive statistics were applied to review times between the jurisdictions and across the therapeutic areas. A regression analysis was done to estimate the association between approval agency and review times. The primary analysis cohort included 241 drugs approved in the United States, the EU, and Switzerland. Of these, 128 drugs had supplemental indications (331 in total) in the United States and 87 had supplemental indications (206 in total) in the EU. Overall median review duration from submission to approval subtracting the clock stop period was 39 weeks in the United States, 44 weeks in the EU, and 44 weeks in Switzerland. When review times within each drug were compared, the European Medicines Agency took a median of 3.7 weeks (IQR, −6.7 to 14.9 weeks) longer than the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and Swissmedic a median of 0.3 weeks (IQR, −10.6 to 15.3 weeks) longer. Median total review duration for supplemental indications was 26 weeks in the United States and 40 weeks in the EU. Applications were submitted a median of 1.3 and 17.9 weeks later in the EU and Switzerland, respectively, than in the United States. The regression analysis showed small differences in submission times between the United States and the EU (−2.1 weeks [95% CI, −11.7 to 7.6 weeks]) and larger differences between the United States and Switzerland (33.0 weeks [CI, 23.1 to 42.8 weeks]). It would be beneficial for patients if differences in submission times between the United States and Europe continue to be minimized.

National Trends in Alcohol Use, Metabolic Syndrome, and Liver Disease From 1999 to 2018

Achievement of Guideline-Recommended Targets in Diabetes Care in China: A Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 176, No 8

Background: Nationwide achievement of guideline-recommended diabetes care targets has not been comprehensively assessed in China. Objective: To estimate the proportions of adults with diabetes achieving major clinical risk factor control, body mass index (BMI), lifestyle, and dietary targets specified in the Chinese diabetes guidelines. Design: Nationwide cross-sectional survey. Setting: China, 2015 to 2017. Participants: A national sample of 8401 adults with self-reported diabetes and a subset of 3531 with dietary data. Measurements: The assessed targets included 1) ABC targets (individualized hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c] target; blood pressure [BP] <130/80 mm Hg; and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C] level <2.6 or <1.8 mmol/L [<100 or <70 mg/dL], depending on the presence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease), 2) BMI below 24 kg/m2, 3) lifestyle targets (not currently smoking or drinking, guideline-recommended leisure time activity level, and sleep duration of 7 to 8 hours), and 4) dietary targets (50% to 65% of energy from carbohydrate, 15% to 20% from protein, 20% to 30% from fat, ≥14 g of fiber per 1000 kcal, and <2000 mg of sodium per day). Results: The proportion of adults with self-reported diabetes achieving each ABC target was 64.1% (95% CI, 61.4% to 66.8%) for HbA1c, 22.2% (CI, 20.2% to 24.1%) for BP, and 23.9% (CI, 21.9% to 25.9%) for LDL-C. The proportion achieving a BMI below 24 kg/m2 was 32.2% (CI, 30.3% to 34.2%). The proportion achieving each lifestyle target was 75.8% (CI, 73.9% to 77.7%) for smoking, 66.7% (CI, 64.4% to 69.1%) for drinking, 17.9% (CI, 15.8% to 20.1%) for leisure time activity, and 52.0% (CI, 49.6% to 54.3%) for sleep duration. The proportion achieving each dietary target was 39.1% (CI, 36.0% to 42.2%) for carbohydrate, 20.1% (CI, 16.9% to 23.3%) for protein, 20.5% (CI, 17.6% to 23.4%) for fat, 9.0% (CI, 7.0% to 10.9%) for sodium, and 2.5% (CI, 1.3% to 3.6%) for fiber. Only 4.4% (CI, 3.5% to 5.2%) of participants achieved all 3 ABC targets, 5.1% (CI, 4.3% to 6.0%) achieved all 4 lifestyle targets, and 4 participants achieved all 5 dietary targets. Limitations: Self-reported data and age of the data. Conclusion: Achievement of guideline-recommended diabetes care targets in Chinese adults with self-reported diabetes was exceedingly low. The findings highlight the need for immediate national health actions to improve diabetes care. Primary Funding Source: Shanghai Municipal Education Commission, National Key R&D Program of the People's Republic of China, and the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China.

Performance of Rapid Antigen Tests to Detect Symptomatic and Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection: A Prospective Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 176, No 7

Background: The performance of rapid antigen tests (Ag-RDTs) for screening asymptomatic and symptomatic persons for SARS-CoV-2 is not well established. Objective: To evaluate the performance of Ag-RDTs for detection of SARS-CoV-2 among symptomatic and asymptomatic participants. Design: This prospective cohort study enrolled participants between October 2021 and January 2022. Participants completed Ag-RDTs and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 every 48 hours for 15 days. Setting: Participants were enrolled digitally throughout the mainland United States. They self-collected anterior nasal swabs for Ag-RDTs and RT-PCR testing. Nasal swabs for RT-PCR were shipped to a central laboratory, whereas Ag-RDTs were done at home. Participants: Of 7361 participants in the study, 5353 who were asymptomatic and negative for SARS-CoV-2 on study day 1 were eligible. In total, 154 participants had at least 1 positive RT-PCR result. Measurements: The sensitivity of Ag-RDTs was measured on the basis of testing once (same-day), twice (after 48 hours), and thrice (after a total of 96 hours). The analysis was repeated for different days past index PCR positivity (DPIPPs) to approximate real-world scenarios where testing initiation may not always coincide with DPIPP 0. Results were stratified by symptom status. Results: Among 154 participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, 97 were asymptomatic and 57 had symptoms at infection onset. Serial testing with Ag-RDTs twice 48 hours apart resulted in an aggregated sensitivity of 93.4% (95% CI, 90.4% to 95.9%) among symptomatic participants on DPIPPs 0 to 6. When singleton positive results were excluded, the aggregated sensitivity on DPIPPs 0 to 6 for 2-time serial testing among asymptomatic participants was lower at 62.7% (CI, 57.0% to 70.5%), but it improved to 79.0% (CI, 70.1% to 87.4%) with testing 3 times at 48-hour intervals. Limitation: Participants tested every 48 hours; therefore, these data cannot support conclusions about serial testing intervals shorter than 48 hours. Conclusion: The performance of Ag-RDTs was optimized when asymptomatic participants tested 3 times at 48-hour intervals and when symptomatic participants tested 2 times separated by 48 hours. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health RADx Tech program.

Predicting Inflammatory Arthritis in At-Risk Persons: Development of Scores for Risk Stratification

Background: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is an immune-related condition defined by the presence of clinical synovitis. Its most common form is rheumatoid arthritis. Objective: To develop scores for predicting IA in at-risk persons using multidimensional biomarkers. Design: Prospective observational cohort study. Setting: Single-center, Leeds, United Kingdom. Participants: Persons with new musculoskeletal symptoms, a positive test result for anticitrullinated protein antibodies, and no clinical synovitis and followed for 48 weeks or more or until IA occurred. Measurements: A simple score was developed using logistic regression, and a comprehensive score was developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox proportional hazards regression. Internal validation with bootstrapping was estimated, and a decision curve analysis was done. Results: Of 455 participants, 32.5% (148 of 455) developed IA, and 15.4% (70 of 455) developed it within 1 year. The simple score identified 249 low-risk participants with a false negative rate of 5% (and 206 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 72%). The comprehensive score identified 119 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 29% (and 336 low-risk participants with a false-negative rate of 19%); 40% of high-risk participants developed IA within 1 year and 71% within 5 years. Limitations: External validation is required. Recruitment occurred over 13 years, with lower rates of IA in later years. There was geographic variation in laboratory testing and recruitment availability. Conclusion: The simple score identified persons at low risk for IA who were less likely to need secondary care. The comprehensive score identified high-risk persons who could benefit from risk stratification and preventive measures. Both scores may be useful in clinical care and should also be useful in clinical trials. Primary Funding Source: National Institute for Health and Care Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre.

Decompression Illness in Divers With or Without Patent Foramen Ovale: A Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 176, No 7

Background: In previous studies, the prevalence of patent foramen ovale (PFO) has been reported to be higher in scuba divers who experienced decompression illness (DCI) than in those who did not. Objective: To assess the association between PFO and DCI in scuba divers. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: Tertiary cardiac center in South Korea. Participants: One hundred experienced divers from 13 diving organizations who did more than 50 dives per year. Measurements: Participants had transesophageal echocardiography with a saline bubble test to determine the presence of a PFO and were subsequently divided into high- and low-risk groups. They were followed using a self-reported questionnaire while blinded to their PFO status. All of the reported symptoms were adjudicated in a blinded manner. The primary end point of this study was PFO-related DCI. Logistic regression analysis was done to determine the odds ratio of PFO-related DCI. Results: Patent foramen ovale was seen in 68 divers (37 at high risk and 31 at low risk). Patent foramen ovale–related DCI occurred in 12 divers in the PFO group (non-PFO vs. high-risk PFO vs. low-risk PFO: 0 vs. 8.4 vs. 2.0 incidences per 10 000 person-dives; P = 0.001) during a mean follow-up of 28.7 months. Multivariable analysis showed that high-risk PFO was independently associated with an increased risk for PFO-related DCI (odds ratio, 9.34 [95% CI, 1.95 to 44.88]). Limitation: The sample size was insufficient to assess the association between low-risk PFO and DCI. Conclusion: High-risk PFO was associated with an increased risk for DCI in scuba divers. This finding indicates that divers with high-risk PFO are more susceptible to DCI than what has been previously reported and should consider either refraining from diving or adhering to a conservative diving protocol. Primary Funding Source: Sejong Medical Research Institute.

Estimating Breast Cancer Overdiagnosis After Screening Mammography Among Older Women in the United States

Background: Overdiagnosis is increasingly recognized as a harm of breast cancer screening, particularly for older women. Objective: To estimate overdiagnosis associated with breast cancer screening among older women by age. Design: Retrospective cohort study comparing the cumulative incidence of breast cancer among older women who continued screening in the next interval with those who did not. Analyses used competing risk models, stratified by age. Setting: Fee-for-service Medicare claims, linked to the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) program. Patients: Women 70 years and older who had been recently screened. Measurements: Breast cancer diagnoses and breast cancer death for up to 15 years of follow-up. Results: This study included 54 635 women. Among women aged 70 to 74 years, the adjusted cumulative incidence of breast cancer was 6.1 cases (95% CI, 5.7 to 6.4) per 100 screened women versus 4.2 cases (CI, 3.5 to 5.0) per 100 unscreened women. An estimated 31% of breast cancer among screened women were potentially overdiagnosed. For women aged 75 to 84 years, cumulative incidence was 4.9 (CI, 4.6 to 5.2) per 100 screened women versus 2.6 (CI, 2.2 to 3.0) per 100 unscreened women, with 47% of cases potentially overdiagnosed. For women aged 85 and older, the cumulative incidence was 2.8 (CI, 2.3 to 3.4) among screened women versus 1.3 (CI, 0.9 to 1.9) among those not, with up to 54% overdiagnosis. We did not see statistically significant reductions in breast cancer–specific death associated with screening. Limitations: This study was designed to estimate overdiagnosis, limiting our ability to draw conclusions on all benefits and harms of screening. Unmeasured differences in risk for breast cancer and differential competing mortality between screened and unscreened women may confound results. Results were sensitive to model specifications and definition of a screening mammogram. Conclusion: Continued breast cancer screening was associated with greater incidence of breast cancer, suggesting overdiagnosis may be common among older women who are diagnosed with breast cancer after screening. Whether harms of overdiagnosis are balanced by benefits and for whom remains an important question. Primary Funding Source: National Cancer Institute.

Effects of U.S. State Medical Cannabis Laws on Treatment of Chronic Noncancer Pain

Background: State medical cannabis laws may lead patients with chronic noncancer pain to substitute cannabis in place of prescription opioid or clinical guideline–concordant nonopioid prescription pain medications or procedures. Objective: To assess effects of state medical cannabis laws on receipt of prescription opioids, nonopioid prescription pain medications, and procedures for chronic noncancer pain. Design: Using data from 12 states that implemented medical cannabis laws and 17 comparison states, augmented synthetic control analyses estimated laws’ effects on receipt of chronic noncancer pain treatment, relative to predicted treatment receipt in the absence of the law. Setting: United States, 2010 to 2022. Participants: 583 820 commercially insured adults with chronic noncancer pain. Measurements: Proportion of patients receiving any opioid prescription, nonopioid prescription pain medication, or procedure for chronic noncancer pain; volume of each treatment type; and mean days’ supply and mean morphine milligram equivalents per day of prescribed opioids, per patient in a given month. Results: In a given month during the first 3 years of law implementation, medical cannabis laws led to an average difference of 0.05 percentage points (95% CI, −0.12 to 0.21 percentage points), 0.05 percentage points (CI, −0.13 to 0.23 percentage points), and −0.17 percentage points (CI, −0.42 to 0.08 percentage points) in the proportion of patients receiving any opioid prescription, any nonopioid prescription pain medication, or any chronic pain procedure, respectively, relative to what we predict would have happened in that month had the law not been implemented. Limitations: This study used a strong nonexperimental design but relies on untestable assumptions involving parallel counterfactual trends. Statistical power is limited by the finite number of states. Results may not generalize to noncommercially insured populations. Conclusion: This study did not identify important effects of medical cannabis laws on receipt of opioid or nonopioid pain treatment among patients with chronic noncancer pain. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Drug Abuse.

Risk for Chronic Kidney Disease Progression After Acute Kidney Injury: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort Study

Background: Prior studies associating acute kidney injury (AKI) with more rapid subsequent loss of kidney function had methodological limitations, including inadequate control for differences between patients who had AKI and those who did not. Objective: To determine whether AKI is independently associated with subsequent kidney function trajectory among patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Design: Multicenter prospective cohort study. Setting: United States. Participants: Patients with CKD (n = 3150). Measurements: Hospitalized AKI was defined by a 50% or greater increase in inpatient serum creatinine (SCr) level from nadir to peak. Kidney function trajectory was assessed using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on SCr level (eGFRcr) or cystatin C level (eGFRcys) measured at annual study visits. Results: During a median follow-up of 3.9 years, 433 participants had at least 1 AKI episode. Most episodes (92%) had stage 1 or 2 severity. There were decreases in eGFRcr (−2.30 [95% CI, −3.70 to −0.86] mL/min/1.73 m2) and eGFRcys (−3.61 [CI, −6.39 to −0.82] mL/min/1.73 m2) after AKI. However, in fully adjusted models, the decreases were attenuated to −0.38 (CI, −1.35 to 0.59) mL/min/1.73 m2 for eGFRcr and −0.15 (CI, −2.16 to 1.86) mL/min/1.73 m2 for eGFRcys, and the CI bounds included the possibility of no effect. Estimates of changes in eGFR slope after AKI determined by either SCr level (0.04 [CI, −0.30 to 0.38] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) or cystatin C level (−0.56 [CI, −1.28 to 0.17] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) also had CI bounds that included the possibility of no effect. Limitations: Few cases of severe AKI, no adjudication of AKI cause, and lack of information about nephrotoxic exposures after hospital discharge. Conclusion: After pre-AKI eGFR, proteinuria, and other covariables were accounted for, the association between mild to moderate AKI and worsening subsequent kidney function in patients with CKD was small. Primary Funding Source: National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health.