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Effect of Molnupiravir on Biomarkers, Respiratory Interventions, and Medical Services in COVID-19: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Trial: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 175, No 8
Background: In the MOVe-OUT trial, molnupiravir showed a clinically meaningful reduction in the risk for hospitalization or death in adults with mild to moderate COVID-19 and risk factors for progression to severe disease. Objective: To identify other potential clinical benefits of molnupiravir versus placebo. Design: Secondary analysis of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 component of MOVe-OUT. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04575597) Setting: 107 sites globally. Participants: 1433 nonhospitalized adults aged 18 years or older with mild to moderate COVID-19. Intervention: Molnupiravir, 800 mg, or placebo every 12 hours for 5 days. Measurements: Changes from baseline in C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration and oxygen saturation (Spo 2), need for respiratory interventions (including invasive mechanical ventilation), and need for medical services in all randomly assigned participants through day 29, and need for respiratory interventions and time to discharge in the subgroup of participants who were hospitalized after randomization. Results: Participants receiving molnupiravir showed faster normalization of CRP and Spo 2, with improvements observed on day 3 of therapy, compared with placebo. Molnupiravir-treated participants had a decreased need for respiratory interventions versus placebo-treated participants (relative risk reduction [RRR], 34.3% [95% CI, 4.3% to 54.9%]), with similar findings in participants who were hospitalized after randomization (RRR, 21.3% [CI, 0.2% to 38.0%]). Hospitalized participants who received molnupiravir were discharged a median of 3 days before those who received placebo. Acute care visits (7.2% vs. 10.6%; RRR, 32.1% [CI, 4.4% to 51.7%]) and COVID-19–related acute care visits (6.6% vs. 10.0%; RRR, 33.8% [CI, 5.6% to 53.6%]) were less frequent in molnupiravir- versus placebo-treated participants. Limitations: Some analyses were performed post hoc. Longer-term benefits of molnupiravir therapy were not evaluated. Participants were not immunized against SARS-CoV-2. Conclusion: The findings suggest there are additional important clinical benefits of molnupiravir beyond reduction in hospitalization or death. Primary Funding Source: Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc.
Quantifying Individual-Level Inaccuracy in Glomerular Filtration Rate Estimation: A Cross-Sectional Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 175, No 8
Background: Although the population-level differences between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR) are well recognized, the magnitude and potential clinical implications of individual-level differences are unknown. Objective: To quantify the magnitude and consequences of the individual-level differences between mGFRs and eGFRs. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Four U.S. community-based epidemiologic cohort studies with mGFR. Patients: 3223 participants in 4 studies. Measurements: The GFRs were measured using urinary iothalamate and plasma iohexol clearance; the eGFR was calculated from serum creatinine concentration alone (eGFRCR) and with cystatin C. All GFR results are presented as mL/min/1.73 m2. Results: The participants' mean age was 59 years; 32% were Black, 55% were women, and the mean mGFR was 68. The population-level differences between mGFR and eGFRCR were small; the median difference (mGFR − eGFR) was −0.6 (95% CI, −1.2 to −0.2); however, the individual-level differences were large. At an eGFRCR of 60, 50% of mGFRs ranged from 52 to 67, 80% from 45 to 76, and 95% from 36 to 87. At an eGFRCR of 30, 50% of mGFRs ranged from 27 to 38, 80% from 23 to 44, and 95% from 17 to 54. Substantial disagreement in chronic kidney disease staging by mGFR and eGFRCR was present. Among those with eGFRCR of 45 to 59, 36% had mGFR greater than 60 whereas 20% had mGFR less than 45; among those with eGFRCR of 15 to 29, 30% had mGFR greater than 30 and 5% had mGFR less than 15. The eGFR based on cystatin C did not provide substantial improvement. Limitation: Single measurement of mGFR and serum markers without short-term replicates Conclusion: A substantial individual-level discrepancy exists between the mGFR and the eGFR. Laboratories reporting eGFR should consider including the extent of this uncertainty to avoid misinterpretation of eGFR as an mGFR replacement. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.
Heterogeneity in Obesity Prevalence Among Asian American Adults
Background: Obesity increases the risk for metabolic and cardiovascular disease, and this risk occurs at lower body mass index (BMI) thresholds in Asian adults than in White adults. The degree to which obesity prevalence varies across heterogeneous Asian American subgroups is unclear because most obesity estimates combine all Asian Americans into a single group. Objective: To quantify obesity prevalence in Asian American subgroups among U.S. adults using both standard BMI categorizations and categorizations tailored to Asian populations. Design: Cross-sectional. Setting: United States, 2013 to 2020. Participants: The analytic sample included 2 882 158 adults aged 18 years or older in the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System surveys (2013 to 2020). Participants self-identified as non-Hispanic White ([NHW] n = 2 547 965); non-Hispanic Black ([NHB] n = 263 136); or non-Hispanic Asian ([NHA] n = 71 057), comprising Asian Indian (n = 13 916), Chinese (n = 11 686), Filipino (n = 11 815), Japanese (n = 12 473), Korean (n = 3634), and Vietnamese (n = 2618) Americans. Measurements: Obesity prevalence adjusted for age and sex calculated using both standard BMI thresholds (≥30 kg/m2) and BMI thresholds modified for Asian adults (≥27.5 kg/m2), based on self-reported height and weight. Results: Adjusted obesity prevalence (by standard categorization) was 11.7% (95% CI, 11.2% to 12.2%) in NHA, 39.7% (CI, 39.4% to 40.1%) in NHB, and 29.4% (CI, 29.3% to 29.5%) in NHW participants; the prevalence was 16.8% (CI, 15.2% to 18.5%) in Filipino, 15.3% (CI, 13.2% to 17.5%) in Japanese, 11.2% (CI, 10.2% to 12.2%) in Asian Indian, 8.5% (CI, 6.8% to 10.5%) in Korean, 6.5% (CI, 5.5% to 7.5%) in Chinese, and 6.3% (CI, 5.1% to 7.8%) in Vietnamese Americans. The prevalence using modified criteria (BMI ≥27.5 kg/m2) was 22.4% (CI, 21.8% to 23.1%) in NHA participants overall and 28.7% (CI, 26.8% to 30.7%) in Filipino, 26.7% (CI, 24.1% to 29.5%) in Japanese, 22.4% (CI, 21.1% to 23.7%) in Asian Indian, 17.4% (CI, 15.2% to 19.8%) in Korean, 13.6% (CI, 11.7% to 15.9%) in Vietnamese, and 13.2% (CI, 12.0% to 14.5%) in Chinese Americans. Limitation: Body mass index estimates rely on self-reported data. Conclusion: Substantial heterogeneity in obesity prevalence exists among Asian American subgroups in the United States. Future studies and public health efforts should consider this heterogeneity. Primary Funding Source: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.
Comparison of Patients Infected With Delta Versus Omicron COVID-19 Variants Presenting to Paris Emergency Departments: A Retrospective Cohort Study: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 175, No 6
Background: At the end of 2021, the B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant (Omicron) wave superseded the B.1.617.2 variant (Delta) wave. Objective: To compare baseline characteristics and in-hospital outcomes of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Delta variant versus the Omicron variant in the emergency department (ED). Design: Retrospective chart reviews. Setting: 13 adult EDs in academic hospitals in the Paris area from 29 November 2021 to 10 January 2022. Patients: Patients with a positive reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test result for SARS-CoV-2 and variant identification. Measurements: Main outcome measures were baseline clinical and biological characteristics at ED presentation, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. Results: A total of 3728 patients had a positive RT-PCR test result for SARS-CoV-2 during the study period; 1716 patients who had a variant determination (818 Delta and 898 Omicron) were included. Median age was 58 years, and 49% were women. Patients infected with the Omicron variant were younger (54 vs. 62 years; difference, 8.0 years [95% CI, 4.6 to 11.4 years]), had a lower rate of obesity (8.0% vs. 12.5%; difference, 4.5 percentage points [CI, 1.5 to 7.5 percentage points]), were more vaccinated (65% vs. 39% for 1 dose and 22% vs. 11% for 3 doses), had a lower rate of dyspnea (26% vs. 50%; difference, 23.6 percentage points [CI, 19.0 to 28.2 percentage points]), and had a higher rate of discharge home from the ED (59% vs. 37%; difference, 21.9 percentage points [−26.5 to −17.1 percentage points]). Compared with Delta, Omicron infection was independently associated with a lower risk for ICU admission (adjusted difference, 11.4 percentage points [CI, 8.4 to 14.4 percentage points]), mechanical ventilation (adjusted difference, 3.6 percentage points [CI, 1.7 to 5.6 percentage points]), and in-hospital mortality (adjusted difference, 4.2 percentage points [CI, 2.0 to 6.5 percentage points]). Limitation: Patients with COVID-19 illness and no SARS-CoV-2 variant determination in the ED were excluded. Conclusion: Compared with the Delta variant, infection with the Omicron variant in patients in the ED had different clinical and biological patterns and was associated with better in-hospital outcomes, including higher survival. Primary Funding Source: None.
Comparing Racial Differences in Emphysema Prevalence Among Adults With Normal Spirometry: A Secondary Data Analysis of the CARDIA Lung Study
Background: Computed tomography (CT) imaging complements spirometry and may provide insight into racial disparities in respiratory health. Objective: To determine the difference in emphysema prevalence between Black and White adults with different measures of normal spirometry results. Design: Observational study using clinical data and spirometry from the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study obtained in 2015 to 2016 and CT scans done in 2010 to 2011. Setting: 4 U.S. centers. Participants: Population-based sample of Black and White adults. Measurements: Self-identified race and visually identified emphysema on CT in participants with different measures of “normal” spirometry results, calculated using standard race-specific and race-neutral reference equations. Results: A total of 2674 participants (485 Black men, 762 Black women, 659 White men, and 768 White women) had both a CT scan and spirometry available for analysis. Among participants with a race-specific FEV1 between 80% and 99% of predicted, 6.5% had emphysema. In this group, emphysema prevalence was 3.9-fold (95% CI, 2.1- to 7.1-fold; 15.5% vs. 4.0%) higher among Black men than White men and 1.9-fold (CI, 1.0- to 3.8-fold; 6.6% vs. 3.4%) higher among Black women than White women. Among participants with a race-specific FEV1 between 100% and 120% of predicted, 4.0% had emphysema. In this category, Black men had a 6.4-fold (CI, 2.2- to 18.7-fold; 13.9% vs. 2.2%) higher prevalence of emphysema than White men, whereas Black and White women had a similar prevalence of emphysema (2.6% and 2.0%, respectively). The use of race-neutral equations to identify participants with an FEV1 percent predicted between 80% and 120% attenuated racial differences in emphysema prevalence among men and eliminated racial differences among women. Limitation: No CT scans were obtained during the most recent study visit (2015 to 2016) when spirometry was done. Conclusion: Emphysema is often present before spirometry findings become abnormal, particularly among Black men. Reliance on spirometry alone to differentiate lung health from lung disease may result in the underrecognition of impaired respiratory health and exacerbate racial disparities. Primary Funding Source: National Institutes of Health.
Preventing Obesity in Midlife Women: A Systematic Review for the Women's Preventive Services Initiative
Background: Despite high prevalence rates of obesity in the United States, no clinical guidelines exist for obesity prevention in midlife women who commonly experience weight gain. Purpose: To evaluate evidence on the effectiveness and harms of behavioral interventions to reduce weight gain and improve health outcomes for women aged 40 to 60 years without obesity. Data Sources: English-language searches of Ovid MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (inception to 26 October 2021); ClinicalTrials.gov (October 2021); and reference lists of studies and reviews. Study Selection: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) enrolling predominantly midlife women comparing behavioral interventions to prevent weight gain with control groups and reporting health outcomes and potential harms. Data Extraction: Dual extraction and quality assessment of individual studies. Data Synthesis: Seven RCTs in 12 publications (n = 51 638) were included. Four RCTs showed statistically significant favorable differences in weight change for counseling interventions versus control groups (mean difference of weight change, −0.87 to −2.5 kg), whereas 1 trial of counseling and 2 trials of exercise showed no differences; 1 of 2 RCTs reported improved quality-of-life measures. Interventions did not increase measures of depression or stress in 1 trial; self-reported falls (37% vs. 29%; P < 0.001) and injuries (19% vs. 14%; P = 0.03) were higher with exercise counseling in 1 trial. Limitation: Trials were generally small, heterogeneous, and lacked data on harms, long-term health outcomes, and specific patient populations. Conclusion: Counseling interventions to prevent weight gain in women during midlife may result in modest differences in weight change without causing important harms. More research is needed to determine optimal content, frequency, length, and number of sessions required and should include additional patient populations. Primary Funding Source: Health Resources and Services Administration.
Characteristics of High-Need, High-Cost Patients: A “Best-Fit” Framework Synthesis: Annals of Internal Medicine: Vol 175, No 12
Background: Accurately identifying high-need, high-cost (HNHC) patients to reduce their preventable or modifiable health care use for their chronic conditions is a priority and a challenge for U.S. policymakers, health care delivery systems, and payers. Purpose: To identify characteristics and criteria to distinguish HNHC patients. Data Sources: Searches of multiple databases and gray literature from 1 January 2000 to 22 January 2022. Study Selection: English-language studies of characteristics and criteria to identify HNHC adult patients, defined as those with high use (emergency department, inpatient, or total services) or high cost. Data Extraction: Independent, dual-review extraction and quality assessment. Data Synthesis: The review included 64 studies comprising multivariate exposure studies (n = 47), cluster analyses (n = 11), and qualitative studies (n = 6). A National Academy of Medicine (NAM) taxonomy was an initial “best-fit” framework for organizing the synthesis of the findings. Patient characteristics associated with being HNHC included number and severity of comorbid conditions and having chronic clinical conditions, particularly heart disease, chronic kidney disease, chronic lung disease, diabetes, cancer, and hypertension. Patients' risk for being HNHC was often amplified by behavioral health conditions and social risk factors. The reviewers revised the NAM taxonomy to create a final framework, adding chronic pain and prior patterns of high health care use as characteristics associated with an increased risk for being HNHC. Limitation: Little evidence distinguished potentially preventable or modifiable health care use from overall use. Conclusion: A combination of characteristics can be useful for identifying HNHC patients. Because of the complexity of their conditions and circumstances, improving their quality of care will likely also require an individualized assessment of care needs and availability of support services. Primary Funding Source: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. (PROSPERO: CRD42020161179)
Mortality and Morbidity in Mild Primary Hyperparathyroidism: Results From a 10-Year Prospective Randomized Controlled Trial of Parathyroidectomy Versus Observation
Background: Primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) is a common endocrine disorder associated with increased risk for fractures, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, and cancer and increased mortality. In mild PHPT with modest hypercalcemia and without known morbidities, parathyroidectomy (PTX) is debated because no long-term randomized trials have been performed. Objective: To examine the effect of PTX on mild PHPT with regard to mortality (primary end point) and key morbidities (secondary end point). Design: Prospective randomized controlled trial. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00522028) Setting: Eight Scandinavian referral centers. Patients: From 1998 to 2005, 191 patients with mild PHPT were included. Intervention: Ninety-five patients were randomly assigned to PTX, and 96 were assigned to observation without intervention (OBS). Measurements: Date and causes of death were obtained from the Swedish and Norwegian Cause of Death Registries 10 years after randomization and after an extended observation period lasting until 2018. Morbidity events were prospectively registered annually. Results: After 10 years, 15 patients had died (8 in the PTX group and 7 in the OBS group). Within the extended observation period, 44 deaths occurred, which were evenly distributed between groups (24 in the PTX group and 20 in the OBS group). A total of 101 morbidity events (cardiovascular events, cerebrovascular events, cancer, peripheral fractures, and renal stones) were also similarly distributed between groups (52 in the PTX group and 49 in the OBS group). During the study, a total of 16 vertebral fractures occurred in 14 patients (7 in each group). Limitation: During the study period, 23 patients in the PTX group and 27 in the OBS group withdrew. Conclusion: Parathyroidectomy does not appear to reduce morbidity or mortality in mild PHPT. Thus, no evidence of adverse effects of observation was seen for at least a decade with respect to mortality, fractures, cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events, or renal morbidities. Primary Funding Source: Swedish government, Norwegian Research Council, and South-Eastern Norway Regional Health Authority.
Development and Validation of the Summary Elixhauser Comorbidity Score for Use With ICD-10-CM–Coded Data Among Older Adults
Background: Older adults have many comorbidities contributing to mortality. Objective: To develop a summary Elixhauser (S-Elixhauser) comorbidity score to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality in older adults using the 38 comorbidities operationalized by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ). Design: Retrospective cohort study. Setting: Medicare beneficiaries from 2017 to 2019. Patients: Persons hospitalized in 2018 (n = 899 844) and 3 disease-specific hospitalized cohorts. Measurements: Weights were derived for 38 comorbidities to predict 30-day, in-hospital, and 1-year mortality. The S-Elixhauser score was internally validated and calibrated. Individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators (38 comorbidities), the modified application of the AHRQ-derived Elixhauser summary score, the Charlson comorbidity indicators (17 comorbidities), and the Charlson summary score were externally validated. The c-statistic was used to evaluate discrimination of a comorbidity score model. Results: The S-Elixhauser score was well calibrated and internally validated, with a c-statistic of 0.705 (95% CI, 0.703 to 0.707) in predicting 30-day mortality, 0.654 (CI, 0.651 to 0.657) for in-hospital mortality, and 0.743 (CI, 0.741 to 0.744) for 1-year mortality. In external validation of other comorbidity indices for 30-day mortality, the c-statistic was 0.711 (CI, 0.709 to 0.713) for the individual Elixhauser comorbidity indicators, 0.688 (CI, 0.686 to 0.690) for the AHRQ Elixhauser score, 0.696 (CI, 0.694 to 0.698) for the Charlson comorbidity indicators, and 0.690 (CI, 0.688 to 0.693) for the Charlson summary score. In 3 disease-specific populations, the discrimination of the S-Elixhauser score in predicting 30-day mortality ranged from 0.657 to 0.732. Limitation: Validation of the S-Elixhauser comorbidity score and head-to-head comparison with other comorbidity scores in an external population are needed to evaluate comparative performance. Conclusion: The S-Elixhauser comorbidity score is well calibrated and internally validated but its advantage over the AHRQ Elixhauser and Charlson summary scores is unclear. Primary Funding Source: National Institute on Aging.
SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Antibody Response and Breakthrough Infection in Patients Receiving Dialysis
Background: Whether breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 infections after vaccination are related to the level of postvaccine circulating antibody is unclear. Objective: To determine longitudinal antibody-based response and risk for breakthrough infection after SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Design: Prospective study. Setting: Nationwide sample from dialysis facilities. Patients: 4791 patients receiving dialysis. Measurements: Remainder plasma from a laboratory processing routine monthly tests was used to measure qualitative and semiquantitative antibodies to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. To evaluate whether peak or prebreakthrough RBD values were associated with breakthrough infection, a nested case–control analysis matched each breakthrough case patient to 5 control patients by age, sex, and vaccination month and adjusted for diabetes status and region of residence. Results: Of the 4791 patients followed with monthly RBD assays, 2563 were vaccinated as of 14 September 2021. Among the vaccinated patients, the estimated proportion with an undetectable RBD response increased from 6.6% (95% CI, 5.5% to 7.8%) 14 to 30 days after vaccination to 20.2% (CI, 17.0% to 23.3%) 5 to 6 months after vaccination. Estimated median index values decreased from 91.9 (CI, 78.6 to 105.2) 14 to 30 days after vaccination to 8.4 (CI, 7.6 to 9.3) 5 to 6 months after vaccination. Breakthrough infections occurred in 56 patients, with samples collected a median of 21 days before breakthrough infection. Compared with prebreakthrough index RBD values of 23 or higher (equivalent to ≥506 binding antibody units per milliliter), prebreakthrough RBD values less than 10 and values from 10 to less than 23 were associated with higher odds for breakthrough infection (rate ratios, 11.6 [CI, 3.4 to 39.5] and 6.0 [CI, 1.5 to 23.6], respectively). Limitations: Single measure of vaccine response; ascertainment of COVID-19 diagnosis from electronic health records. Conclusion: The antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination wanes rapidly in persons receiving dialysis. In this population, the circulating antibody response is associated with risk for breakthrough infection. Primary Funding Source: Ascend Clinical Laboratory.